Why Are Bitcoin and Ethereum Remaining Stable Despite the Re-escalation of the US-Iran Conflict?

The relationship between Bitcoin and the U.S.-Iran conflict has once again come into focus after the two countries exchanged attacks and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated. 

Despite the significant risks, Bitcoin saw only limited movement around US$63,800, while Ethereum held steady near US$1,800 at the start of trading on July 13, 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin and Ethereum have remained relatively stable as the latest escalation did not completely surprise the market and some of the risks have been reflected in the price.
• Price stability has not proven Bitcoin as a safe haven because BTC and ETH are still sensitive to the dollar, oil, interest rates, and risk-on asset sentiment.
• The greatest risk arises if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists and leads to higher energy prices, higher inflation, and tighter monetary policy.

What Happened in the US-Iran Conflict?

The United States launched several waves of attacks on Iranian territory after a container ship was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran then retaliated with attacks on several Gulf countries that house US military facilities.

The US military said it had struck approximately 140 targets, including missile and drone launch sites, communications centers, and other military facilities. Iran also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, although the United States stated the waterway remained open with reduced shipping activity.

Sumber: AI Generated Image

The Strait of Hormuz holds strategic importance because about one-fifth of the world’s traded oil and natural gas passed through that route prior to the conflict. Prolonged disruptions could hinder energy shipments, drive up oil prices, and exacerbate global inflationary pressures.

The energy market’s initial reaction is already evident. Brent crude oil prices rose about 3.3% to US$78.49 per barrel when Asian trading opened on July 13, 2026. The U.S. dollar also strengthened as investors weighed inflation risks and the possibility of interest rate hikes.

Read also: Is Bitcoin's Bull Run Still Following a Four-Year Cycle? Here's a Signal from the 200-Week Moving Average (MA).

Why Didn't Bitcoin Drop Sharply During the US-Iran Conflict?

Bitcoin isn't completely immune. On July 13, 2026, BTC fell by about 0.6% to US$63,770. This movement remains relatively limited compared to the magnitude of the military escalation and potential global energy disruption.

There are several factors that may explain this response.

1. Some Conflict Risks Are Already Built Into the Price

The market has been dealing with US-Iran tensions for several months. In early July 2026, Bitcoin briefly dropped to around US$61,700 after the announcement that the ceasefire was no longer effective.

This means that the previous decline had reduced some speculative positions and forced investors to adjust their expectations. When the new attack occurred, the information wasn't entirely a surprise.

Markets typically react most strongly to unexpected changes. If investors have anticipated the possibility of further attacks, additional bad news doesn't always trigger selling on the same scale.

2. Markets Assess Strait of Hormuz Disturbances as Temporary

Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, but limited shipping activity is reportedly still taking place. The United States has also denied that the waterway is completely closed.

These differing claims mean traders are not yet treating the situation as a permanent halt to oil supplies.

If shipping routes return to normal within a short time, the economic impact could remain limited. Conversely, a shutdown lasting several weeks could potentially alter inflation calculations, economic growth, and the direction of interest rates.

Bitcoin's current stability suggests that the market is still more inclined towards a temporary disruption scenario than a prolonged global energy crisis.

3. No On-Chain Panic Waves Seen

Weekend trading monitoring did not reveal any unusual spikes in Bitcoin transfers to exchanges, stablecoin minting, or large movements from cold wallets to selling addresses.

Asset transfers to exchanges are frequently monitored as they can indicate holders' intentions to sell. When such activity doesn't increase significantly, spot selling pressure tends to be more manageable.

This situation doesn't guarantee that prices won't fall. The data simply shows that large holders haven't responded to the escalation by moving assets en masse to exchanges.

Read also: Bernstein's $150K Bitcoin Target Remains Despite 54% Pullback

4. Leverage Positions Have Reduced After Previous Correction

Bitcoin had been declining prior to the latest attack. Logically, the previous correction likely reduced some of the leveraged positions vulnerable to liquidation.

Highly leveraged markets can fall rapidly because even a small decline triggers automatic liquidations. Once many speculative positions are closed, it takes a new, even greater selling pressure to produce a similar decline.

This point is an inference from the recent series of price corrections and recoveries. Stronger confirmation still requires open interest, funding rate, and liquidation data from multiple exchanges.

5. Institutional Flows Still Provide Limited Support

Prior to the weekend escalation, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately US$90.4 million on July 10, 2026. Ethereum ETF also received approximately US$18.4 million.

The value is not yet large enough to indicate aggressive accumulation, but the positive flow can help contain selling pressure.

As the conflict escalated, stock and bond markets were closed for the weekend. ETFs were also inactive outside of stock exchange trading hours. Bitcoin and Ethereum were among the few global assets that continued to trade geopolitical information in real time.

A more complete response can only be assessed once trading in oil, bonds, stocks, and ETFs resumes simultaneously.

Why Does Ethereum Remain Stable Despite the Middle East Conflict?

Ethereum fell about 1.1% to US$1,801 in early trading on July 13, 2026. The decline was slightly larger than Bitcoin's, but still limited by the size of the crypto market.

Ethereum's resilience can be explained by several factors.

First, there were no disruptions directly related to the Ethereum network. Geopolitical conflicts did not halt validators, transactions, DeFi applications, or Layer 2 activity.

Second, ETH remains heavily influenced by Bitcoin's direction. When BTC isn't experiencing a major sell-off, Ethereum typically has a better chance of holding short-term support.

Third, the inflows into Ethereum ETFs before the weekend indicate that institutional demand remains, albeit on a smaller scale.

Fourth, ETH has experienced a significant correction from its year-high. The already weakening price may have caused some of the negative news to be reflected in the valuation.

However, Ethereum typically experiences higher volatility than Bitcoin. If global sentiment shifts to full risk-off, ETH and altcoins could experience greater pressure as investors tend to reduce exposure to higher-risk assets first.

Read also: Ethereum RSI Hits Record Low, $1,500 Support: Bottom Signal?

Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven During Geopolitical Conflicts?

The latest stability is not enough to prove that Bitcoin safe haven has been equivalent to gold or high-quality government bonds.

A safe haven is an asset that maintains or increases its value when financial markets face significant pressure. Bitcoin does possess several supporting characteristics:

• Maximum supply is limited.
• Not controlled by one government.
• Can be moved across countries.
• Traded 24 hours a day.
• Not dependent on one banking system.
• Can be stored independently.

However, Bitcoin's price behavior still often resembles that of technology assets and risky instruments. When global liquidity shrinks, the dollar strengthens, or interest rates rise, BTC can also come under pressure.

Sumber: AI Generated Image

In previous episodes of tension, Bitcoin also fell alongside the stock market, rather than moving like gold. This suggests that Bitcoin's safe-haven status remains conditional.

Bitcoin can serve as a hedge against certain risks, such as capital controls, currency depreciation, or banking restrictions. However, in times of global turmoil that drive investors to seek cash, Bitcoin can still be sold to meet liquidity needs.

Read also: Strategy: Selling 3,588 Bitcoins Worth $216 Million: Is Saylor's Treasury Model Under Threat?

The Impact of War on Bitcoin Is Not Always Immediate

Military conflicts don't always directly impact Bitcoin through the blockchain network. Their impact typically ripples through several economic stages.

Stage One: Oil Prices Rise

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could limit oil and gas supplies. Higher energy prices increase transportation, production, and consumption costs.

Stage Two: Inflation Increases

Rising energy costs can trickle down to the prices of goods and services, causing investors to adjust their inflation expectations accordingly.

Stage Three: Central Bank Holds or Raises Interest Rates

If inflation rises again, the central bank could delay interest rate cuts or consider further increases. On July 13, 2026, markets increased their expectations for the possibility of two or more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes by December.

Stage Four: Liquidity for Risky Assets Decreases

Higher interest rates increase the attractiveness of dollars, deposits, and bonds. Investors become less inclined to hold assets with no cash flow, such as Bitcoin.

Stage Five: Bitcoin and Ethereum Under Pressure

If this process continues for several weeks, the crypto market may decline even if the initial reaction seems calm.

Therefore, the primary effect of conflict is not simply the number of attacks. More important is whether the conflict causes lasting energy disruptions and changes the direction of monetary policy.

Read also: ChatGPT Bitcoin Prediction Before Q3: Crash to $48,000 or Recover to $82,000?

Why Can Current Stability Be Misleading?

Calm prices don't necessarily mean risk has disappeared. During weekend trading, liquidity is often thinner because some traditional financial institutions and products are inactive.

Thin liquidity can lead to two scenarios: Prices can fluctuate sharply due to few orders, or remain flat as large players wait for the traditional market to open.

Investors also need to distinguish between stability and trend strength. Bitcoin hovering around US$63,000 doesn't necessarily indicate a rally. The price could be in a consolidation phase before moving in either direction.

To keep up to date with geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the digital asset market, you can register at Bittime and check for the latest news updates. Use market data for research and avoid making decisions based solely on a single headline.

Scenarios That Could Change the Price of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bullish Scenario

BTC and ETH can survive or strengthen when:

• The Strait of Hormuz is back to normal operations.
• The attack did not escalate into a regional war.
• Oil prices fell again.
• ETF inflows continue.
• The dollar weakened.
• There was no new wave of liquidations.
• Diplomatic negotiations resumed.

In this scenario, recent price resistance could increase confidence that selling pressure is starting to ease.

Bearish Scenario

Pressure can increase when:

• The Strait of Hormuz was completely closed for a long time.
• Oil prices are returning to crisis levels.
• Inflation is rising faster than expected.
• The Federal Reserve adopted a tighter policy.
• ETFs experienced large outflows.
• Whales move Bitcoin to exchanges.
• There are attacks on energy facilities or other trade routes.
• The conflict involves more countries.

Ethereum and altcoins are likely to face higher volatility in this scenario because they are further down the risk curve than Bitcoin.

Read also: Bitcoin Monetization Program Strategy: Michael Saylor's New Strategy

Indicators Investors Need to Monitor

To assess the impact of the conflict on the crypto market, investors can monitor:

1. Brent and WTI oil prices
   The continued rise is a signal that the conflict is starting to impact global supply.
    
2. Ship activity in the Strait of Hormuz
   Shipping data helps distinguish symbolic closures from prolonged physical disruptions.
    
3. US dollar index
   A steadily strengthening dollar is usually a headwind for Bitcoin and risk assets.
    
4. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations
   Changes in interest rate projections can impact market liquidity more than short-term news attacks.
    
5. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF fund flows
   Inflows indicate institutional demand, while large redemptions can amplify selling pressure.
    
6. Open interest dan funding rate
   Increasing leverage too quickly can increase the risk of liquidation.
    
7. Crypto flows to exchanges
   A surge in deposits from whales could be an indication of increased selling potential.

Read also: Can Ethereum Beat Bitcoin in Q3 2026?

Conclusion

Bitcoin and Ethereum remain relatively stable despite US-Iran conflict Prices have risen again as the escalation didn't completely surprise the market. Some of the risks had already been reflected in the previous correction, while weekend trading data didn't indicate a wave of on-chain panic or mass selling.

Bitcoin held steady around US$63,800 and Ethereum around US$1,800, but this stability doesn't yet constitute proof that either has become a full-fledged safe haven. BTC and ETH remain sensitive to oil prices, dollar strength, interest rates, ETF flows, and stock market sentiment.

The biggest risk isn't just a military attack, but the knock-on effects on energy and inflation. If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for a prolonged period, oil prices could rise, monetary policy could tighten, and risky asset liquidity could shrink.

Investors should monitor the duration of the conflict, shipping activity, energy prices, ETF flows, and leverage indicators. 

A calm reaction over the weekend isn't enough to conclude that geopolitical risk is over.

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FAQ

Why didn't Bitcoin fall sharply during the US-Iran conflict?

Some of the conflict risk has been reflected in the previous decline. The market also doesn't yet view the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz as a permanent closure that could trigger a global energy crisis.

Does war affect Bitcoin price?

Yes, but the effects are often indirect. War can raise oil prices and inflation, pushing interest rates higher, and thus reducing liquidity for Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin a safe haven asset?

Bitcoin has characteristics that support this function, but its price behavior still often follows that of risky assets. Its status as a safe haven hasn't been as consistent as gold or government bonds.

Why does Ethereum remain stable during the Middle East conflict?

Ethereum has followed Bitcoin's resilience and hasn't faced any significant disruptions to its network. However, ETH could still fall sharply if global markets enter a risk-off phase.

What is the biggest risk to crypto prices from this conflict?

The biggest risk is a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would raise energy prices and inflation. This could lead to tighter interest rate policies and put pressure on digital assets.