SpaceX Stock Plummets: Is the Share Unlock Behind the Pressure on SPCX?

SpaceX stock movement has once again drawn investor attention after SPCX came under pressure as around 319 million shares were released from the lock-up period. SpaceX stock fell 4.05% on August 20, 2026, to US$134, before rebounding 2.22% to US$136.97 in the following trading session.

The decline caused the SPCX price to briefly fall below the US$135 IPO price. However, did SPCX fall purely because of the share unlock? The answer is not that simple. 

Supply pressure is certainly an important catalyst, but investors are also facing a high valuation, upcoming unlock schedules, and SpaceX's enormous capital expenditure requirements.

Key Takeaways

• Around 319 million SpaceX shares became eligible for trading on August 20, increasing potential market supply.
• SPCX stock fell 4.05% to US$134 on the unlock date, but later rebounded to US$136.97.
• A share unlock increases volatility risk, but does not automatically mean that all of those shares will immediately be sold by existing holders.

Why Did SpaceX Stock Fall After the Share Unlock?

A share unlock is the expiration of trading restrictions on shares previously held by employees, early investors, or certain shareholders. Once the lock-up period ends, these shareholders gain the right to sell their shares in the market.

In SpaceX's case, around 319 million shares became eligible for trading on August 20. This amount was equivalent to around 2.68 times the trading volume of the previous day, giving the market a significant potential increase in supply.

The market reaction was quite clear. SPCX fell 4.05% to US$134 on August 20. The decline also temporarily pushed SpaceX stock below its US$135 IPO price.

However, there is one important point: being eligible for sale does not mean the shares were actually sold. Existing shareholders may choose to hold their shares if they remain optimistic about SpaceX's prospects.

Read Also: SpaceX Fails to Acquire Cognition, What Is the Impact on AI and Technology?

How Significant Is the Pressure on SPCX Stock?

Trading data shows that pressure did emerge on the unlock date. On August 20, SPCX recorded a volume of around 119 million shares, higher than several previous sessions. The price then fell from US$139.65 on August 19 to US$134.

However, the pressure did not continue at an extreme level. On August 21, SpaceX stock rebounded 2.22% to US$136.97. This means the market was still able to absorb some of the selling pressure that emerged after additional shares became available.

This condition is important because the previous share unlock produced a different result. On August 6, around 911.5 million shares became eligible for trading. That amount was even larger than the August 20 tranche, yet SpaceX stock actually rose around 6% that day.

Therefore, SPCX stock did not fall solely because every unlocked share immediately entered the market. Sentiment, valuation, market conditions, and investor expectations also determine the price response.

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What Does the Share Unlock Mean for SpaceX Stock Price?

The primary impact of a share unlock is a change in the balance between supply and demand.

Before the unlock, the number of SpaceX shares available for public trading was relatively limited. When more shares become eligible, the potential float increases. If existing shareholders sell large amounts while new demand is not strong enough, pressure on the price can increase.

Conversely, if most shareholders choose to hold their shares, the impact could be much smaller.

Investors also need to note that SpaceX's unlock schedule is not yet complete. Based on the reported schedule, several subsequent tranches remain, including around 1.3 billion shares scheduled to become available after the third-quarter 2026 report.

Therefore, SpaceX stock could face several episodes of volatility before the main lock-up structure fully expires.

Read Also: SpaceX Rocket Hits the Moon and Creates an 18-Meter Crater, NASA Releases Before-and-After Photos

SpaceX Fundamentals Remain a Counterbalance

Share unlock pressure does not automatically mean that SpaceX's fundamentals are deteriorating. In fact, the second-quarter 2026 report showed strong business growth.

SpaceX recorded revenue of around US$7.81 billion in the second quarter, up from US$4.07 billion in the same period a year earlier. However, the company also spent around US$1.84 billion in capital expenditures, reflecting the scale of investment currently being made in future businesses and technologies.

These figures explain why SpaceX stock valuation has become a point of debate. Investors are not only valuing the current rocket and Starlink businesses, but are also pricing in expectations for AI, connectivity, Starship, and long-term expansion.

Therefore, the price pressure caused by the share unlock needs to be separated from the larger question: does SPCX's current valuation already reflect SpaceX's future growth?

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What Should SPCX Investors Watch?

In the short term, investors need to pay attention to the stock's ability to hold the area around US$135, which is the IPO price.

The close at US$136.97 on August 21 shows that the price remained around 1.46% above the IPO level. However, if the stock falls again and breaks below the US$130.39 low recorded on the unlock date, selling pressure could once again become a concern.

In addition to price levels, trading volume is also important. If additional supply can be absorbed without an extreme surge in selling volume, the market may indicate that demand remains sufficiently strong. 

Conversely, rising volume accompanied by falling prices could indicate more aggressive distribution.

Investors should also avoid focusing solely on SPCX falling today. The next unlock schedule could become a new catalyst affecting sentiment.

Read Also : SpaceX Buys Rp16 Trillion in Gas Turbines for AI, What Is Elon Musk's Plan?

Does the Share Unlock Make SpaceX Stock Riskier?

A share unlock increases volatility risk, but does not automatically signal that SpaceX stock should be sold.

The main risk is an increase in stock supply when the company's valuation is already very high. 

In addition, SpaceX still requires significant investment in Starlink, Starship, and its AI business. If revenue growth fails to keep pace with market expectations, the valuation could come under pressure.

On the other hand, SpaceX has businesses with significant growth and a strong position in the launch and satellite connectivity industries. 

Therefore, investors need to assess whether the decline in SPCX stock is temporary technical pressure or the beginning of a change in expectations regarding the company's fundamentals.

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Conclusion

SpaceX stock plunged on August 20, largely coinciding with the release of around 319 million shares from the lock-up period. SPCX fell 4.05% to US$134 before rising 2.22% to US$136.97 in the following session.

The share unlock does increase potential selling pressure, but it has not proven that all of those shares have been sold. In fact, the experience of the 911.5 million-share unlock in early August showed that additional supply does not always result in a price decline.

For investors, the next focus is SPCX's ability to hold the US$135 IPO price area, trading volume, and the upcoming unlock schedule. As more shares enter the market, SpaceX stock volatility is likely to remain high.

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FAQ

Why Did SpaceX Stock Fall?

One of the main triggers was the share unlock of around 319 million shares on August 20, 2026. Additional shares becoming eligible for trading increased potential supply and selling pressure.

What Was the SpaceX Stock Price After the Share Unlock?

SPCX closed at US$134 on August 20, then rebounded 2.22% to US$136.97 on August 21, 2026.

Were All Unlocked SpaceX Shares Sold Immediately?

No. A share unlock only means that the shares become eligible for trading. Their owners can still choose to hold the shares.

Will SPCX Continue to Fall?

There is no certainty. SPCX's price movement will be influenced by the balance of supply and demand, SpaceX's fundamentals, investor sentiment, valuation, and subsequent share unlocks.

When Is the Next SpaceX Share Unlock?

SpaceX still has several unlock tranches. One of the largest involves around 1.3 billion shares scheduled to become available in connection with the third-quarter 2026 report.