With the US Debt Crisis Looming, Ray Dalio Chooses Bitcoin and Gold

The US debt crisis has returned to the market's attention after Ray Dalio warned that the United States could face a debt crisis in about three years without significant policy changes.

The founder of Bridgewater Associates advised investors to reduce their exposure to bonds and diversify into assets such as gold and a small amount of Bitcoin.

The warning comes as the US bond market faces pressure, while the government still faces a large deficit and high debt refinancing needs.

For Dalio, the issue is not simply the size of the debt, but the cycle in which interest costs increasingly burden the budget and the government must find ways to maintain its ability to finance its obligations.

This is where Ray Dalio's view of Bitcoin and gold becomes interesting.

He doesn't position Bitcoin as a replacement for gold, but rather as a small part of diversification alongside assets that governments can't simply print.

Key Points

• Ray Dalio estimates the US debt crisis could reach a tipping point in about three years if policy direction does not change.

• Dalio suggests investors reduce their weighting of bonds and place about 10%–15% of their portfolio in gold, plus a small amount of Bitcoin.

• Bitcoin's price was around US$77,500 or around Rp1.37 billion per BTC based on an exchange rate of US$1 = Rp17,700 when the data was checked.

The $2 Trillion Deficit Is a Major Alarm in Ray Dalio's Warning

According to Dalio, the US fiscal situation has reached a point where it is increasingly difficult to manage.

Data quoted by Suara Garut from its statement shows that US government revenue is estimated at around US$ 5.5 trillion, while spending reaches US$ 7.5 trillion.

The difference results in a deficit of around US$2 trillion.

The Extremely High Burden of US Debt Interest Costs

At the same time, interest costs on debt are estimated to reach around US$1 trillion. The US government also faces approximately US$10 trillion in debt that needs to be refinanced.

These figures explain why Ray Dalio sees the debt issue as a structural problem, not just a quarterly or two-year economic fluctuation.

The greater the cost of paying interest and refinancing debt, the smaller the government's fiscal space when facing an economic slowdown or a new crisis.

Ray Dalio suggests the US budget deficit be reduced to around 3% of GDP through a combination of spending cuts, revenue increases, and interest expense reductions.

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Why Does Ray Dalio Choose Gold and a Little Bit of Bitcoin?

The logic behind Ray Dalio's gold and Bitcoin is related to diversification against assets that are heavily dependent on the capabilities of governments and financial systems.

Dalio has long used the concept of the debt cycle to explain how the accumulation of liabilities can create pressure on the monetary system.

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Hedging Asset Options in Extreme Conditions

In extreme conditions, governments may face a difficult choice between accepting high interest rates, implementing fiscal austerity measures, or increasing liquidity to shore up debt markets.

From this perspective, gold has a relatively established position as a hedge. Gold is not issued by governments and has been used as a store of value during periods of monetary uncertainty.

Bitcoin has distinct characteristics. Its maximum supply is capped at 21 million BTC and it doesn't rely on a single government's decision to increase the supply.

However, Bitcoin's volatility is much higher, so Dalio does not recommend an allocation as large as gold.

Instead, he talks about holding “a little” Bitcoin as part of diversification.

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Bitcoin hovers around $77,500 as debt concerns mount

The current price of Bitcoin provides interesting context to this thesis.

Data shows BTC price is around US$77,500 or around Rp1.37 billion, assuming an exchange rate of US$1 to Rp17,700.

CoinMarketCap historical data also shows Bitcoin closed around US$78,335 on August 21, 2026, after gaining 7.26% on the day.

Bitcoin's rise coincided with a period when markets were again paying attention to pressure on US government bonds and the country's fiscal outlook.

The Financial Times reports that Bitcoin and gold both rose as concerns about US debt, inflation and a weakening dollar prompted investors to seek alternative assets.

However, this correlation does not prove that Bitcoin always functions as a safe haven.

Bitcoin could still experience a sharp decline when global liquidity tightens or investors sell off risky assets.

Therefore, calling Bitcoin a hedge should be read in the context of long-termism and diversification, not as a guarantee that the price of BTC will rise when a crisis occurs.

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Gold Remains a Top Choice in Dalio's Strategy

Compared to Bitcoin, gold's position in Ray Dalio's strategy is much clearer.

Bloomberg states that Ray Dalio recommends allocating around 10%–15% of a portfolio to gold.

He also advised investors to reduce the weight of debt assets such as bonds and diversify across assets and countries with stronger financial conditions.

This choice is consistent with gold's character as an asset that is independent of a particular debt issuer.

When confidence in fiat currencies or government bonds declines, gold can become an alternative store of value.

The latest market data also shows strong demand for gold.

The Financial Times reported that gold prices rose about 13% in August to reach around US$4,612 per troy ounce amid growing concerns about US debt and the dollar.

Thus, Dalio's thesis is not simply “sell bonds, buy Bitcoin.”

The largest portion of the protection he talks about is actually in gold, while Bitcoin is a smaller addition.

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The US Debt Crisis Doesn't Automatically Make Bitcoin Rise

This is an important part for Bitcoin investors.

If a US debt crisis does occur, Bitcoin could indeed benefit from growing concerns about fiat currencies.

But this mechanism does not work automatically.

In the early stages of a crisis, investors may sell Bitcoin to obtain dollars or cash due to the need for liquidity.

Bitcoin is also still traded as a risk asset in many institutional portfolios.

Only when a crisis develops into a question of currency confidence, inflation, or highly expansionary monetary policy will Bitcoin's thesis as a hedge gain greater traction.

Therefore, the Bitcoin US debt crisis should be viewed as a scenario, not a price certainty.

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What Should Investors Watch for in the 2026 US Debt Crisis?

Investors don't need to wait for a crisis to actually occur to test Dalio's thesis. There are several indicators they can monitor regularly.

Firstis the long-term US Treasury yield

A persistent rise in yields could indicate that investors are demanding greater compensation for holding government debt.

The second is the government's need for refinancing.

The more debt that has to be renewed at higher interest rates, the greater the pressure on the budget.

The third is the fiscal deficit and interest costs.

If both continue to increase without comparable revenue growth, the government's policy space will become increasingly narrow.

The four are the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin.

If gold and Bitcoin strengthen alongside a weakening dollar and rising fiscal concerns, the market could be showing increased demand for assets perceived as more independent of government policy.

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Ray Dalio Bitcoin and Gold Are Better Read as Diversification Strategies

Ray Dalio's statement should not be interpreted as a signal to move the entire portfolio into Bitcoin and gold.

In fact, the core message is diversification.

Ray Dalio suggests investors reduce their concentration on bonds and spread their assets across a variety of instruments and countries with stronger financial conditions.

This makes the strategy more relevant for investors evaluating portfolio risk.

The question is not “will Bitcoin rise because of US debt?”, but rather “how big a portfolio can withstand Bitcoin’s volatility if that scenario does not occur?”

For Indonesian investors, this framework can also be used to compare gold and Bitcoin.

Gold has a long history as a hedge, while Bitcoin offers digital characteristics, limited supply, and global access but with much higher price risk.

Read Also:Gold Price Prediction 2026: Goldman Sachs Optimistic, Is It Worth Buying Now?

Conclusion

Ray Dalio has issued another stark warning about the US debt crisis.

He estimates that the situation could reach a critical point in about three years if the government does not change the direction of its fiscal policy.

The strategy Dalio offers is not just about choosing Bitcoin.

He recommends reducing exposure to bonds, allocating around 10%–15% to gold, and a small position in Bitcoin.

For the crypto market, this thesis is interesting because it places Bitcoin in a larger context: not just as a speculative asset, but as an alternative when investors begin to question the sustainability of debt and the value of fiat currencies.

However, Bitcoin is still not a safe haven in the conventional sense.

Its volatility is much higher than gold, so investors need to treat Bitcoin as part of a diversified portfolio with measured risks, not as a surefire hedge against economic crises.

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FAQ

Why is Ray Dalio warning of a US debt crisis?

Ray Dalio believes the US deficit, interest costs, and debt refinancing needs are growing, potentially creating fiscal pressures if there are no significant policy changes.

How much longer is the American debt crisis expected to last?

Dalio estimates the US debt crisis could reach a tipping point in about three years, with uncertainty extending to several years depending on policy changes.

Why does Ray Dalio recommend gold?

Gold is seen as a non-government-issued asset and can serve as a diversifier when the risks of debt, inflation and currency depreciation increase.

Does Ray Dalio recommend Bitcoin?

Yes. Dalio recommends holding a "little" amount of Bitcoin as part of diversification, but he recommends holding a much larger portion of gold, around 10%–15% of a portfolio.

Will Bitcoin go up if the US debt crisis occurs?

Not necessarily. Bitcoin could benefit if the crisis raises concerns about fiat currencies, but in the early stages of a crisis, BTC could also be hit by a sell-off as investors seek liquidity.