Bitcoin Price After US CPI in September 2026: What Impact Will It Have?

Bitcoin Price after CPI AS September 2026 depressed due to higher-than-expected inflation strengthening expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

BTC fell to around US$80,979, or -3.3% in 24 hours, and briefly fell below the average spot Bitcoin ETF acquisition cost of around US$81,500.

The impact wasn't limited to Bitcoin: liquidations of leveraged positions approached US$1 billion in 24 hours, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of US$261.5 million.

The market is now monitoring whether the US$80,000 support level can hold or whether Bitcoin will continue its correction towards the US$78,000 area.

Key Takeaways

• The US September CPI recorded annual inflation of 3.7% and core inflation of 2.6%, higher than estimates of 3.6% and 2.5%.

• Bitcoin fell about 3.3% to US$80,979 after the CPI release, with crypto liquidations approaching US$1 billion and 91.6% coming from long positions.

• The probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October rose to about 37%, from about 22% before the inflation data was released.

CPI Data US September 2026

September CPI showed stronger inflationary pressures than market expectations.

Headline inflation rose 0.6% month-over-month, while core CPI rose 0.3%; on an annual basis, headline CPI reached 3.7% and core CPI 2.6%.

The surge in gasoline prices was a major contributor, with the gasoline index rising 9.1% month-over-month and accounting for more than half of the monthly CPI increase.

On a year-over-year basis, the energy index jumped 20.4%, reinforcing inflationary pressures that have led markets to reassess Fed policy expectations.

Read Also:Convert 1 BTC to IDR - Bitcoin to Indonesian Rupiah Exchange Rate

Why Bitcoin Drops After CPI

Bitcoin is sensitive to interest rate expectations because crypto assets generally behave like risk assets.

When inflation is higher, the chances of the Fed raising interest rates increase, Treasury yields rise, the US dollar strengthens, and capital tends to move away from speculative assets.

Following the CPI release, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October rose to about 37%, from nearly 22% previously.

This situation creates an immediate headwind for BTC, as higher capital costs typically depress the valuation of assets that do not generate cash flow.

Bitcoin fell 1.9% to US$81,931 in Wednesday's trading, then continued its decline to US$80,979 in the following report.

This movement confirms that the CPI release was the primary trigger for the correction, not just ordinary price fluctuations.

Read Also: 5 Coins to Watch After the US CPI Announcement

Impact on ETFs and Leveraged Markets

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of US$261.5 million on the same day, signaling selling pressure from institutional investment channels.

The price drop also puts BTC below the average ETF acquisition cost, which Glassnode estimates at around US$81,500.

Crypto market liquidations approached US$1 billion in 24 hours, with 91.6% coming from long positions.

This means that many traders who bet on the price going up were forced to close their positions when BTC fell, thereby increasing the selling pressure in a chain.

The Role of Whales and Market Sentiment

Before the CPI was released, whales were reported to have switched from distribution to accumulation.

Whale holdings outside of exchanges and mining pools reached 3.03 million BTC, the highest level since November 2025.

However, community sentiment tends to be negative.

Santiment recorded a ratio of 0.82 bullish comments for every bearish comment on October 13, triggered by repeated rejections at the $87,000 area, a decline towards $81,000, and a large liquidation of long positions.

Read Also:Cara Membeli Bitcoin (BTC) | BTC to IDR | BTC to USDT

Bitcoin's Decisive Price Levels

BTC to USDT via Bittime Market

The nearest support is at US$80,000, where the largest bid block on Binance's spot order book is located.

Source: X/@Darkfost_Coc

This level is also close to Bitcoin's 365-day moving average according to CryptoQuant.

If US$80,000 breaks, leveraged long positions piled up just below that level are at risk of being liquidated.

The next downside target is the True Market Mean of around US$78,000, which is the average buying price of active investors.

Bitcoin Market Scenarios Next

Stabilization scenario

Bitcoin could stabilize if US$80,000 holds and ETF fund flows return to positive.

Before the CPI, Bitcoin ETF spot inflows reached US$175.6 million on Tuesday, the highest in nearly two weeks, following a net withdrawal of US$681 million the previous week.

A recovery in ETF inflows would be an important signal as it indicates institutional demand absorbing selling pressure.

Without such a recovery, the price rally is likely to be more difficult to sustain even if whales continue to accumulate.

Advanced correction scenario

If the US PPI data released Thursday is also hotter, expectations of an interest rate hike could strengthen again.

In this scenario, yields and a stronger dollar could potentially push BTC towards US$78,000.

Investors also need to monitor altcoin movements as risk confirmation.

Ether fell 3.4% to US$2,427.20, XRP fell 2.5%, Solana fell 2.1%, and Cardano fell 3.2%, signaling broad-based weakness in the crypto market.

Read Also:Bitcoin Fails to Break $81,000, Could the Fed's CPI Decision Change Direction?

What This Means for Bitcoin Investors

September CPI data shows thatBitcoin price after US CPI September 2026 more influenced by monetary policy expectations rather than the whale accumulation narrative alone.

Whale accumulation can be a medium-term signal, but macro pressures, ETF outflows, and leveraged liquidations still determine the short-term direction.

For Indonesian investors, the main focus is to maintain risk management around US$80,000 and avoid excessive leverage during high macro volatility.

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FAQ

Why did Bitcoin drop after the September 2026 US CPI?

Bitcoin fell as higher-than-expected inflation raised the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike. Rising yields and a stronger dollar weighed on risk assets, including BTC.

What will be the price of Bitcoin after the September 2026 CPI?

Bitcoin fell about 3.3% to US$80,979 after the CPI, after earlier trading below US$82,000.

Does CPI affect spot Bitcoin ETF?

Yes. On the day of the CPI release, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of US$261.5 million, while the BTC price fell below the ETF's average acquisition cost of around US$81,500.

Where is the next Bitcoin support level?

Critical support is at US$80,000. If this level breaks, the US$78,000 area becomes the next downside target based on the True Market Mean.

Are whales still supporting the price of Bitcoin?

Whales reportedly shifted to accumulation ahead of the CPI, with holdings reaching 3.03 million BTC. However, the sustainability of their support still depends on the price reaction at the US$80,000 support level and a recovery in ETF inflows.