SPCX Stock Plunges After IPO, Then Rebounds: Here's What Investors Need to Know

Saham SpaceX (SPCX) experienced the biggest post-IPO roller coaster in history: from a surge to $225, a 16% correction in a day to $150, to a rebound to $157.75.

The issuance of $20 billion in bonds for refinancing has raised liquidity concerns, even though SpaceX's actual cash reserves are still above $100 billion.

Amid this volatility, Oppenheimer raised its price target to $250 (58% upside), while Morningstar assessed fair value at just $62, a stark difference in analysis.

The $60 billion acquisition of Cursor and the lock-up period that will release new shares will be factors in determining the future price.

This article will examine the causes of the correction, the long-term outlook, and the risks investors need to understand before buying SpaceX shares.

Key Takeaway

• SPCX price fell from $225 to $135 (IPO price) after a 16% correction in a day, then rebounded to $157.75.

• The main reasons: the issuance of $20 billion in bonds for refinancing and concerns about large capex, as well as a lock-up period that will release new shares.

• Oppenheimer raised the price target to $250 (58% upside), while Morningstar assessed the fair value at only $62.

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SPCX Stock: From IPO Surge to Sharp Correction

SpaceX (SPCX) listed on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 with the largest IPO in history, raising $75 billion (total $86 billion after underwriter exercise) at an IPO price of $135.

On its first day, the stock jumped 19% to $160.95 and reached $225.64 the following week.

However, on June 22, SPCX plummeted 16.43% in one day, briefly touching below $150 in the pre-market. This decline wiped out approximately $600 billion in market capitalization.

What caused it? The issuance of a $20 billion bond triggered liquidity concerns, coupled with negative sentiment in the technology sector.

But on June 23, the stock rebounded 2.5% to $157.75, still above its IPO price of $135 but far from its peak.

Read also: SpaceX Post-IPO Sharp Price Correction: Factors Depressing Price

Reasons for the Correction: $20 Billion Bonds and Capex

The major correction was triggered by SpaceX's $20 billion bond issuance. The goal was to refinance a bridge loan due in 2027.

This is a normal capital structure optimization for large corporations, but the market reacted negatively because it saw it as a sign of cash flow stress.

SpaceX has over $100 billion in cash reserves post-IPO, so the “cash-strapped” narrative isn’t entirely accurate.

But the market is starting to focus on operational reality: SpaceX's capex will remain high through 2029, with Starship, Starlink, and AI infrastructure requiring significant investment.

Second factor: Lock-up period. Approximately 20% of shares will vest after the Q2 report (July-August), with the remainder in December 2026. The supply of new shares could depress the price.

Read also: How to Buy SpaceX Tokenized Stock (SPCXon)

Cursor Acquisition and AI Strategy

On June 16, SpaceX announced the acquisition AI coding startup Cursor worth $60 billion. This is a strategic move to strengthen its position at "every layer of the AI ​​stack." Cursor allows developers to write code faster with English instructions.

Oppenheimer raised its SPCX price target from $190 to $250, citing increased revenue visibility from the Cursor acquisition and potential growth in AI infrastructure.

The $250 target means a 58% upside from the current price ($157.75).

Valuation: Morningstar vs. Oppenheimer

There's a significant difference between analysts. Morningstar rates SpaceX's fair value at just $62 per share, well below its current price.

They focused on the core business of rockets and Starlink, ignoring the AI ​​narrative.

Oppenheimer, on the other hand, sees SpaceX as a major AI infrastructure player, with Cursor as a key component.

Their $250 target reflects the belief that SpaceX will continue to leverage acquisitions to build capabilities in LLM, data centers, and spectrum.

S&P Global gave it a BBB rating (the lowest investment grade), noting high capex through 2029.

Read also: SpaceX's IPO is increasingly anticipated. Can Indonesian investors afford to buy its shares?

What Do Investors and Analysts Say?

Dan Ives (Wedbush): optimistic, saying the market is "digesting massive debt and equity raises from Big Tech." This is part of an industry-wide wave.

Mike Alves (Vida Vision Fund): SpaceX holds 46% of his portfolio. He's not worried about a correction, comparing it to Facebook, which fell below $18 after its $38 IPO in 2012 and is now up 1,000%.

Morningstar: advise investors to wait a few months for the stock to stabilize before buying.

Read also: How to Buy SpaceX Tokenised Shares (SPCXx)

Risks for Investors

Lock-up period: new supply of shares from employees and early investors will enter the market.

High Capex: Starship, Starlink, and AI infrastructure require significant investment through 2029.

Competition: OpenAI and Anthropic also IPO, competing in the AI ​​market.

Valuation: P/E ratio is not available because the company is still making losses in several segments.

Conclusion

SPCX stock plummeted after its IPO, then rebounded, from a peak of $225 to $135, then back down to $157.75. The main cause: $20 billion bond issuance, capex concerns, and lock-up period. Oppenheimer targets $250, Morningstar $62.

Investors should monitor the lock-up period (July-December 2026), the Q2 report, and developments on Starship and the AI ​​infrastructure. Volatility will remain high.

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FAQ

How much did SpaceX IPO cost?

$135 per share, for a total raise of $86 billion (including underwriter exercise).

What is the current price of SPCX?

$157.75 (June 23, 2026), after rebounding from $150.

Why did SPCX plummet?

The 16% correction was triggered by the issuance of $20 billion in bonds and capex concerns.

What is the SPCX price target?

Oppenheimer $250, Morningstar $62. Analyst averages vary.

Is SpaceX still profitable?

Not yet. Capex is high for Starship, Starlink, and AI.

What is a lock-up period?

A period during which early investors and employees cannot sell their shares. 20% will vest after Q2 2026.

Did SpaceX buy Cursor?

Yes. A $60 billion acquisition on June 16, 2026, for an AI coding agent.

What is S&P Global's rating for SpaceX?

BBB, the lowest investment grade.