France vs Morocco: 2022 Rematch, Who Advances to the Semifinals?

The France vs Morocco 2026 matchup brings back one of the most emotional duels of this World Cup. After meeting in the 2022 semifinals, the two teams face each other again in the World Cup 2026 quarterfinals on July 9. 

France enters as the favorite, but Morocco's performance throughout the tournament shows that the African representative is once again ready to challenge the top teams. 

This match is expected to be tightly contested as it pits two teams with very different playing styles against each other.

Key Takeaways

• France is the clear favorite with approximately 64% chance of winning based on the latest odds.
• Morocco is once again the surprise package of the tournament after eliminating the Netherlands and Canada.
• This duel is a rematch of the 2022 World Cup semifinal, which France won 2-0.

France Is Favored, but Morocco Comes with Strong Momentum

According to WorldCupOdds analysis, France is the favorite to win the match with odds of 1.57, while a draw is priced at 3.90 and a Morocco win at 6.40. 

France’s probability of winning is estimated at around 64%, reflecting market confidence in the quality of Les Bleus’ squad.

Source: 2026 World Cup Odds 

This advantage is not without reason. France has performed consistently throughout the tournament, advancing as group winners, then defeating Sweden 3-0 in the round of 32 and eliminating Paraguay 1-0 in the round of 16.

On the other hand, Morocco has once again proven itself as one of the most disciplined teams in the tournament. After advancing convincingly from the group stage, they eliminated the Netherlands on penalties before defeating Canada 3-0 to secure a quarterfinal spot.

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2022 Semifinal Rematch Full of Historical Significance

This match carries more meaning than just a ticket to the semifinals. The two teams previously met in the 2022 Qatar World Cup semifinals, where France won 2-0 with goals from Théo Hernández and Randal Kolo Muani.

The situation is different now. Morocco comes with more mature experience and the status of one of football’s new powers. Their success in reaching the knockout stages again shows that their achievement four years ago was not just a one-off surprise.

Meanwhile, for France, this match is an opportunity to once again prove their dominance over Morocco and continue their ambition to win the next World Cup title. 

Illustration: Generated by AI

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Mbappé Is the Main Threat, Morocco Relies on Solid Defense

The main focus of the match is undoubtedly on Kylian Mbappé. According to WorldCupOdds analysis, the French striker is the strongest candidate to score the first goal due to his sharpness throughout the tournament and his role as the team’s primary penalty taker.

Besides Mbappé, squad depth is a major advantage for France. They are able to maintain game intensity even with player rotation.

On the other hand, Morocco’s strength lies in its disciplined defensive organization. Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou is once again a key figure between the posts, while Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Díaz are expected to play major roles in building quick counterattacks.

A strategy of tight defense followed by quick counterattacks is Morocco’s main weapon to neutralize France’s attacking aggression.

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Match Prediction and Chances of Advancing to the Semifinals

Looking at both teams’ performances, France still has a greater chance of advancing to the semifinals. Their experience in big matches, individual player quality, and finishing efficiency are Les Bleus’ main assets.

However, Morocco still has the potential to cause an upset if they can maintain defensive discipline as they did against the Netherlands. The longer the match goes without goals, the greater Morocco’s chances of forcing extra time or penalties.

According to WorldCupOdds analysis, some interesting markets include France to win, under 2.5 total goals, and Mbappé as the first goalscorer. 

Meanwhile, for Morocco supporters, handicap options or draw no bet are considered to offer better value than picking a straight win.

The winner of this match will advance to the semifinals and face the winner of Spain vs Belgium.

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Conclusion

France remains the favorite entering the match based on squad quality, experience, and tournament performance. However, Morocco has repeatedly shown its ability to defeat strong teams through disciplined game organization and solid defense.

With the background of being a rematch of the 2022 World Cup semifinal, this duel is expected to be one of the most exciting matches in the 2026 World Cup quarterfinals. 

If France relies on Mbappé’s creativity and squad depth, Morocco will try to repeat its successful recipe through solid defense and quick counterattacks.

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FAQ

When will the France vs Morocco match be played?

The match is scheduled for July 9, 2026 in the 2026 World Cup quarterfinals.

Who is the favorite?

France is the favorite with approximately 64% probability of winning based on the latest odds from WorldCupOdds.

Why is this match called a rematch?

Because France and Morocco previously met in the 2022 World Cup semifinals, which France won 2-0.

Who is the most highlighted player?

Kylian Mbappé is the most watched player due to his goal-scoring productivity throughout the tournament, while Morocco relies on Yassine Bounou, Achraf Hakimi, and Brahim Díaz.

Who will the winner of this match face?

The winning team will advance to the semifinals to face the winner of Spain vs Belgium.