Prediction Market di Piala Dunia 2026: Polymarket dan Kalsi Cetak Rekor!
2026-06-22
The 2026 World Cup prediction market made history with a trading volume of over $5.2 billion on Polymarket and Kalshi, surpassing traditional sports betting in terms of new user growth.
One trader made $13.6 million from two bets on the Czech Republic vs. South Africa match, while another lost almost $9 million as Belgium failed to beat Egypt.
Compared to Qatar 2022, prediction markets have now transformed from a fringe activity into the mainstream of global sports speculation.
This article will examine the rise of prediction markets during the 2026 World Cup, their successes and failures, and what makes them different from traditional betting.
Key Points
The 2026 World Cup prediction market recorded volumes of over $5.2 billion on Polymarket and Kalshi, surpassing traditional sports betting.
Polymarket reached $2.6 billion on the "World Cup Winner" contract with $436 million in liquidity. Kalshi recorded $5.1 billion in the first week of the tournament.
A trader at Polymarket made a $13.6 million profit betting on the Czech Republic vs. South Africa match, while another trader lost almost $9 million because Belgium failed to beat Egypt.
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Prediction Market Beats Traditional Betting
During the 2022 World Cup, prediction markets remained a fringe activity, engaging only with crypto enthusiasts and niche traders.
Four years later, prediction markets have entered the mainstream.
Polymarket and Kalshi recorded tremendous new user growth, with nearly 75% of new activity in the betting app category coming from these two platforms during June 1-15, 2026.
During the same period as the NBA Finals and NHL Finals, the growth rate of prediction markets significantly outpaced traditional betting platforms such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.
DraftKings itself recorded the biggest weekend for its event contracts ever, surpassing the Super Bowl, with customers surging over 200% and volume up 100%.
Read also:Kalshi and Political Prediction Markets: Their Impact on the Crypto Industry
$5.2 Billion Flows into Prediction Markets
Polymarket reached a historic milestone: trading volume for the “World Cup Winner” contract surpassed $2.6 billion on June 18, with liquidity of approximately $436 million.
Kalshi is no less impressive.
The platform recorded $5.1 billion in trading volume in the first week of the 2026 World Cup, a record high for the platform.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said this was the first time the platform had recorded three consecutive days with daily volume above $1 billion.
The estimated total betting on the 2026 World Cup as a whole is expected to exceed $50 billion, a 43% increase compared to Qatar 2022.
Source: Kalshi
Read also:What is zer0? An AI Agent that Monitors Polymarket Predictions
Success and Failure Stories
Prediction markets offer transparency that traditional betting lacks. On-chain data allows us to see who wins and who loses.
Biggest success story so far
- Akun "GRIMDRIP" turned $6 million into $13.6 million with two bets on the Czech Republic vs. South Africa match.
- The "mintblade" account doubled their money with a $7 million bet that Iran would not beat New Zealand.
- "EndlessFate" grossed $5.6 million from Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay and an additional $2.7 million from Colombia vs. Uzbekistan.
Read also:Will the 2026 World Cup Affect the Crypto Market? Here's the Analysis
But there are also bitter stories.
One user lost almost $9 million betting on Belgium to beat Egypt, which turned out to be wrong.
After Spain's 0-0 draw with Cape Verde, around $64 million was traded in the markets on that match.
One trader who bet against Spain made a profit of about $9 million, while another trader lost their entire $1 million principal.
Research by Citizens found that retail customers in prediction markets typically lose money in the long run and perform worse than bettors in sportsbooks.
Read also:7 Crypto Tokens Worth Watching With a 2026 World Cup Theme
Prediction Market Competitive Advantage
Prediction markets have an advantage over traditional betting: they can operate in US states where traditional sports betting is prohibited, such as California and Texas.
This allows DraftKings to reach consumers they couldn't previously target.
DraftKings and Kalshi spent heavily on social media and TV advertising campaigns.
DraftKings promotes their “sports app” available across the US, while Kalshi collaborates with sports stars like Luka Modrić and Lionel Messi.
As Jordan Bender, gaming equity analyst at Citizens, says: "The phenomenon that's happening here is a free-for-all."
Read also:List of Stocks with Potential Profits During the 2026 World Cup
Crypto Prediction Market: The Future of Sports Speculation
Crypto prediction markets have proven themselves to be a viable, even superior, alternative to traditional betting. The $5.2 billion volume of the 2026 World Cup is no small figure.
With high liquidity, on-chain transparency, and global access, prediction markets are likely to continue to grow at future major sporting events.
The 2026 World Cup is not only the biggest football event, but also a moment for the rise of prediction markets as a mature speculative industry.
Conclusion
The 2026 World Cup prediction market recorded over $5.2 billion in volume on Polymarket and Kalshi. Prediction market user growth is outpacing traditional sports betting.
Traders have managed to make millions of dollars, but there are also those who have lost millions.
The 2026 World Cup marks the rise of prediction markets as a transparent, decentralized, and potentially highly speculative alternative.
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FAQ
What is a prediction market?
A platform that allows users to trade contracts based on the outcome of specific events, such as World Cup matches.
What is the volume of the 2026 World Cup prediction market?
Over $5.2 billion across Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket reached $2.6 billion for its "World Cup Winner" content.
Are prediction markets better than traditional betting?
Prediction markets offer on-chain transparency and access in US states where sports betting is prohibited. However, research shows that retail bettors typically lose money in the long run.
Who are the biggest winners in the prediction market?
The account "GRIMDRIP" turned $6 million into $13.6 million with two bets on the Czech Republic vs. South Africa match.
Who lost big?
One user lost almost $9 million betting on Belgium to beat Egypt.
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Yes. Kalshi operates under regulations in the US. Polymarket operates outside the US for international users.
What is the difference between prediction market and sportsbook?
Prediction markets are peer-to-peer and transparent. Sportsbooks are the traditional bookmaker model.
Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.
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