Bitcoin SOPR: The On-Chain Indicator That Reveals Who's Selling at a Profit — and Who Isn't

When Bitcoin's price climbs, one question keeps coming up: is now the right time to sell? The answer isn't hidden in candlestick charts — it's recorded directly on the blockchain through Bitcoin SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio. 

This metric doesn't predict prices. It reads facts: whether the coins moving on-chain today are being sold at a profit or at a loss.

SOPR was created by analyst Renato Shirakashi and has since become one of the most widely used on-chain metrics for understanding Bitcoin holder behavior across market cycles.

Key Takeaways

• SOPR above 1 means coins moving on-chain are, on average, being sold at a profit — a sign that holders are taking gains.
• SOPR below 1 means coins are moving at a loss — indicating selling pressure or a potential capitulation phase in the market.
• The 1.0 level is the critical threshold — how the market reacts around this level can reveal whether the broader trend is bullish or bearish.

What Is SOPR and How Does It Work?

SOPR is computed by dividing the realized value in USD of a spent output by its value at creation — put simply, price sold divided by price paid.

If the result is above 1, the coin was sold for more than it was bought — the seller made a profit. If the result is below 1, the coin was sold for less — the seller took a loss.

SOPR looks at the ratio between the USD value when a UTXO was created and the USD value when it is spent. A UTXO, or Unspent Transaction Output, refers to the balance held in a Bitcoin address. Every coin movement on the blockchain leaves a traceable record, and SOPR turns that record into a readable market signal.

How to Read SOPR: Three Core Conditions

There are three fundamental states to understand when reading Bitcoin SOPR:

SOPR > 1: The average seller is profitable. This is common during bull markets as holders gradually lock in gains. When the value climbs significantly higher — above 1.4, for instance — it can signal that selling pressure is building.

SOPR = 1: The breakeven point. This level often acts as resistance in bear market phases when market participants rush to exit as soon as their break-even price is reached. In bull markets, the 1.0 level tends to act as strong support, because holders are unwilling to sell at a loss.

SOPR < 1: The average seller is underwater. Extended periods of SOPR below 1.0 have historically coincided with bear market bottoms — the point at which sellers who were underwater finally give up and exit.

LTH-SOPR vs STH-SOPR: Different Holders, Different Signals

SOPR isn't a single metric. Two important variants offer distinct views into who is actually moving the market.

LTH-SOPR (Long-Term Holder SOPR) only accounts for Bitcoin that hasn't moved in more than 155 days. It evaluates the behavior and profitability of investors who don't seek immediate profits and who tend to have more experience navigating market volatility.

STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder SOPR) measures the average profit or loss of short-term holders — defined as addresses that have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days — when they move coins on-chain.

Understanding both matters because signals from long-term holders carry more weight than short-term noise from frequent traders.

What SOPR Is Saying About the Market Right Now

As Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, the SOPR for Long-Term Holders surpassed the mid-range and rose to new highs in 2025, reflecting growing profit-taking behavior among this key group of investors.

But context matters here. Despite this notable increase, the metric remains below the red zone that has historically marked the peaks of Bitcoin's bull cycle — suggesting the asset could still extend its price rally to another new all-time high before a potential bear market begins.

That's the broader value of SOPR: it doesn't just describe what's happening now, it places the current moment within the larger cycle.

Conclusion

Bitcoin SOPR offers a clear window into how holders are actually behaving — something no price chart alone can reveal. A reading above 1 signals profit-taking, below 1 points to selling pressure or capitulation, and how the market holds around the 1.0 level is often the clearest indicator of trend direction.

For beginners, SOPR works best as a supporting tool to understand overall market sentiment. Not as a buy or sell trigger on its own, but as an additional lens that makes the forces behind Bitcoin's price movements easier to read.

FAQ

What does SOPR stand for in Bitcoin?

SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio. It is an on-chain metric that measures whether Bitcoin being transferred on the blockchain is moving at a profit or a loss relative to the price at which it was originally acquired.

Can SOPR be used for cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin?

SOPR was originally developed for Bitcoin due to its unique UTXO-based blockchain structure. Some analytics platforms have adapted versions of it for other assets, but Bitcoin SOPR remains the most data-rich and widely validated form of the metric.

Where can I check Bitcoin SOPR for free?

Several platforms offer free access to SOPR charts, including Glassnode Studio, CoinGlass, Bitbo, and LookIntoBitcoin. Each platform presents the data slightly differently, so it helps to cross-reference more than one source.

What is the difference between SOPR and MVRV?

SOPR illustrates realized profit — the amount actually gained or lost when Bitcoin changes hands. MVRV focuses on unrealized profit, which is the difference between the current market price and the purchase price of all coins on the network. The two complement each other: SOPR indicates actual selling pressure in the market, while MVRV provides an indication of whether the market is historically undervalued or overvalued.

Is SOPR reliable enough to use as a buy or sell signal?

SOPR works best as a supporting indicator, not a standalone signal. It becomes most actionable when combined with price action, volume, and other on-chain metrics. Historically, SOPR dipping below 1.0 and recovering in a bull market environment has often confirmed that a correction has run its course and momentum is returning — but context from other indicators always strengthens the read.

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