3 Recommended Stock Picks for 2026: ITMG, TOBA, and ASII Signal Spec Buy

The Bareksa Analyst Team provides stock recommendations for trading on July 23, 2026, with three leading issuers: PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG), PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk (TOBA), and PT Astra International Tbk (ASII).

All three are showing Hold / Spec Buy signals after forming breakout patterns above the 20 and 50-day Moving Averages, with ITMG offering the best risk-reward (3.06:1) from entry priority.

This recommendation emerged amid the consolidation of the IDX in the range of 6,247–6,395 and BI's decision to maintain interest rates at 5.75%.

Key Takeaways

• The Bareksa Analyst Team recommends three stocks with Hold / Spec Buy signals for July 23, 2026: ITMG (Rp24,275), TOBA (Rp488), and ASII (Rp5,150).

• ITMG offers the best risk-reward ratio of 3.06:1 with an entry priority of Rp23,675–23,750, targeting Rp25,500–26,225 with a stop loss of Rp23,425.

• ASII received support from the Rp8 trillion buyback program that began on July 20, while the IDX is expected to move in the range of 6,247–6,395 with the potential for a correction.

IDX Analysis and Market Sentiment

Source: AI

The IDX closed with a slight correction of 0.09% to 6,334 on July 22, 2026, almost flat after a four-day rally.

Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 920 billion, with the Transportation (-1.71%) and Healthcare (-1.09%) sectors being the main pressures, while Technology (1.56%) and Consumer Non-Cyclicals (0.78%) strengthened.

The rupiah strengthened slightly to Rp17,880/USD.

Globally, Wall Street saw limited movement while oil commodities continued their rally, with Brent rising 3.36% to US$94.1/bbl amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Positive news came from Bank Indonesia, which maintained the BI Rate at 5.75% in its July 2026 Board of Governors Meeting, in line with expectations and easing market pressure.

Read Also: How Many Shares Are in 1 Lot? Here Are the IDX Rules and How to Calculate Them

1. ITMG – PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk

ITMG Stock Analysis – PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk

A breakout above the MA20 (Rp23,000) and MA50 (Rp22,725) with an RSI of 51.04 indicates renewed buying momentum, with ample room for upside.

The risk-reward for priority entry reaches 3.06:1. Hold for those already in position. Spec buy on pullback to Rp23,675–Rp23,750.

2. TOBA – PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk

TOBA stock analysis – PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk

Breakout above MA20 (Rp410) and MA50 (Rp404) with a 2.09% increase on July 22.

An RSI of 56.09 indicates renewed buying momentum, with volume 1.7 times the 20-day average. Prioritize entries at Rp418–434, as the return on investment (RR) from an upper entry is only 0.56:1.

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3. ASII – PT Astra International Tbk

ASII Analysis – PT Astra International Tbk

Breakout above MA20 (Rp4,840) and MA50 (Rp4,830) with an increase of 0.98% on July 22.

RSI 56.19 indicates new buying momentum is strengthening, RR from upper entry 1.31:1.

The Rp8 trillion buyback program that began July 20 provides additional price support.

Hold for those already in position. Spec buy on pullback to Rp4,800–4,860.

Read Also: List of Stocks with the Most Investors in Indonesia 2026

Bareksa Analyst Team's Stock Recommendations, July 23, 2026

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Key Risk Factors

1. Foreign Net Sell of IDR 920 Billion

Continued foreign selling pressure indicates global investor caution. If net selling continues, the IDX could potentially correct, putting downward pressure on all stocks.

2. Brent Oil Price at US$94.1/bbl

Continued oil price increases increase the risk of domestic inflation and pressure on the rupiah.

3. IDX at Key Resistance of 6,377

The IDX's inability to break through 6,377 indicates limited bullish momentum. A failed breakout could trigger profit-taking towards the 6,000–6,100 support level.

Read Also:Why Is MLPT Stock So Popular? The Impact of the Stock Split and Suspension

Conclusion

The three stocks chosen by the Bareksa Analyst Team, ITMG, TOBA, and ASII, all formed breakouts with hold/spec buy signals.

ITMG offers the best RR (3.06:1), while ASII receives additional support from an IDR 8 trillion buyback program.

Prioritize ITMG entry at Rp23,675–23,750, TOBA at Rp418–434, and ASII at Rp4,800–4,860.

Beware of foreign net selling pressure and the IDX resistance level of 6,377, which could potentially trigger short-term profit-taking.

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FAQ

What is ITMG's core business?

ITMG is a leading thermal coal mining company in Indonesia, operating mines in East and Central Kalimantan, and is a subsidiary of Banpu (Thailand).

What is ASII's main business?

ASII is Indonesia's largest conglomerate with six business lines: automotive, financial services, heavy equipment & mining, agribusiness, infrastructure, and information technology.

What is a buyback program and its impact on investors?

A buyback is a company's repurchase of shares from the market. The impact is a reduction in the number of outstanding shares (increasing EPS), management signals undervaluation, and provides market price support. ASII received approval for the Rp8 trillion buyback, which began on July 20, 2026.

Why does the BI Rate of 5.75% have a positive impact on stocks?

The hold rate decision eased concerns about rising borrowing costs, was positive for interest-rate-sensitive issuers (property, banking, leveraged issuers) and maintained the attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds.

What are the main risks of this recommendation?

Key risks: continued foreign net selling, rising oil prices, which could increase inflation, and the IDX failing to break through the 6,377 resistance level, which could trigger profit-taking.