Bernstein Maintains $150K Bitcoin Target Despite 54% Pullback

The crypto market has proven multiple times that sharp corrections do not always end long-term trends. This view is once again reaffirmed in Bernstein’s $150K Bitcoin target, even though the largest crypto asset has experienced a 54% Bitcoin pullback from its peak. 

For Bernstein’s analyst team, the current decline more reflects a market cycle adjustment phase rather than a sign of weakening Bitcoin fundamentals. 

This assessment is also supported by institutional investment flows, accumulation by Bitcoin treasury companies, and the development of digital asset regulations in the United States. 

Key Takeaways

• Bernstein maintains its Bitcoin target of US$150,000 by the end of 2026 despite the asset having corrected by around 54%.
• According to analysts, the current correction is not accompanied by a systemic crisis like in previous bear market cycles.
• Purchases of Bitcoin by companies like Strategy are considered capable of offsetting outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Why Does Bernstein Maintain the US$150,000 Bitcoin Price Target?

In its latest research report, Bernstein analysts assess that the current correction has not changed Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. 

They continue to maintain the Bitcoin price target of US$150,000 by the end of 2026 because several fundamental indicators still show positive trends.

According to a report cited by ForkLog, the price decline of around 54% from the October 2025 peak is shallower compared to previous bear market cycles. For comparison, Bitcoin has experienced declines of around 94% in 2011, 86% in 2014, 84% in 2018, and 77% in 2022.

This difference shows that the current Bitcoin market is considered more mature because it can absorb selling pressure better than in previous cycles. 

Read Also: Safe and Affordable Ways to Buy Bitcoin in Indonesia

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Bernstein Bitcoin Analysis: Correction Not Accompanied by Systemic Crisis

One of the main reasons supporting Bernstein’s Bitcoin analysis is the absence of major disruptions to the crypto industry’s infrastructure.

In previous bear markets, Bitcoin price declines were usually triggered by major institutional failures, crypto exchange bankruptcies, liquidity crises, or domino effects due to excessive leverage usage.

However, this time, Bernstein assesses that such conditions have not occurred. According to them, the price weakening is more influenced by investor sentiment and global macroeconomic conditions rather than damage to the Bitcoin ecosystem itself.

The report also notes that although spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of around US$5.5 billion, the total assets managed by ETFs are still around US$74 billion. Thus, selling pressure from ETFs is considered not large enough to change Bitcoin’s long-term trend. 

Read Also: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Stalled, What’s Going On?

Strategy and US Regulation Support Bitcoin 2026 Prospects

Another factor making Bernstein optimistic is the increasing accumulation of Bitcoin by public companies.

Strategy, for example, reportedly purchased around 175,000 BTC throughout 2026 worth around US$14 billion, bringing its total holdings to more than 847,000 BTC. 

According to Bernstein, these large-scale purchases have successfully offset selling pressure from ETFs and Bitcoin miner activities.

In addition, the research firm also views regulatory developments in the United States as a positive catalyst. 

Several issues they highlight include progress on the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, the possibility of passing the CLARITY Act, and the growth of tokenized real-world assets (Real World Assets/RWA) markets.

On the other hand, Bernstein assesses that Strategy’s financial risks remain manageable. The company’s debt ratio is estimated at only around 13% compared to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, while the main debt maturity will not occur until 2028. 

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Bitcoin 2026 Prediction: What Risks Still Need Attention?

Although maintaining the Bitcoin 2026 target at US$150,000, Bernstein acknowledges that the journey to that level will not be smooth.

The firm estimates that some Bitcoin miners in the United States will continue shifting investments to AI data center businesses because they offer more attractive margins. 

This shift has the potential to affect global hashrate distribution, although it is not expected to significantly disrupt Bitcoin network security.

In addition, macroeconomic conditions remain a factor to watch. High interest rates, central bank monetary policies, and capital flows toward defensive assets like gold can affect Bitcoin’s short-term price movements.

Nevertheless, Bernstein assesses that the combination of institutional accumulation, growth of Bitcoin treasury companies, and increasingly clear regulations remain the main foundation supporting Bitcoin’s 2026 prospects. 

Therefore, they consider the scenario of rising to US$150,000 still realistic even though it now appears more ambitious than a few months ago. 

Bitcoin is now available and ready for trading on Bittime via the  BTC/USDT pair; in addition, there are other assets on the Bitcoin BRC20 network, such as SATS and ORDI.

Conclusion

Bernstein maintains its US$150,000 Bitcoin target because it sees the 54% correction as part of the market cycle, not a sign of weakening asset fundamentals. Compared to previous bear market cycles, this decline occurred without a systemic crisis shaking the crypto industry.

On the other hand, Bitcoin purchases by Strategy, growth in institutional investment, and regulatory developments in the United States are factors strengthening optimism toward Bitcoin’s prospects through the end of 2026. 

Although volatility is expected to remain high, Bernstein assesses that the current market foundation is much stronger compared to previous years.

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FAQ

Why does Bernstein maintain its US$150,000 Bitcoin target?

Bernstein assesses that the approximately 54% correction is not accompanied by fundamental damage to the Bitcoin market and is still supported by strong institutional demand.

What is Bernstein’s Bitcoin price target?

Bernstein analysts maintain a Bitcoin price target of US$150,000 by the end of 2026.

What are the main reasons behind Bernstein’s optimism?

They see Bitcoin accumulation by companies like Strategy, institutional capital flows, and US regulatory developments as the main supporting factors.

Is Bitcoin ETF outflow a threat?

According to Bernstein, ETF outflows of around US$5.5 billion are still relatively small compared to the total assets managed by Bitcoin ETFs, so they have not changed the long-term outlook.

What is the biggest risk for Bitcoin in 2026?

The main risks come from macroeconomic conditions, interest rate policies, global market volatility, and changes in investor sentiment toward risky assets.