IHSG Prediction After Purbaya Effect & The Fed's FOMC: A Boom or a Crash?

The Indonesian stock market has once again come under scrutiny following the emergence of two major catalysts: the government's policy of placing funds in banks (known as the Purbaya Effect) and the Federal Reserve's (The Fed) decision at the FOMC meeting.

This combination of domestic and global factors is considered to influence the direction of movement. Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG)in the near future. Many analysts predict the JCI will enter a positive trend, although there are still risks that need to be monitored.

We will review the JCI predictions, leading sectors, and potential challenges that could arise.

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Domestic Sentiment: Purbaya Securities and Bank Liquidity

The government's placement of Rp200 trillion in funds across five state-owned banks has become a major market news item. The funds were distributed across Bank Mandiri, BRI, BNI, BTN, and BSI in the form of on-call deposits.

This step is expected to strengthen banking liquidity and support real sector credit expansion.

This policy has created positive sentiment for banking stocks. Investors see the potential for lower funding costs, resulting in healthier banking margins. This could drive up the share prices of major banks and potentially drive the JCI in the short term.

However, analysts also emphasize that this measure is not a one-size-fits-all solution. Banks must remain cautious in expanding credit and maintaining asset quality.

With a combination of fiscal and monetary policies, Purbaya Securities could be a significant catalyst for strengthening the JCI in the second half of September 2025.

Global Sentiment: FOMC and the Fed's Potential Rate Cut

Globally, the market is awaiting the outcome of the Fed's FOMC meeting on September 16–17, 2025. Growing expectations are for a cut in the benchmark interest rate after US employment data showed weakness.

Rising unemployment rates and slowing job growth have given the Fed reason to loosen its monetary policy.

If the Fed does indeed cut interest rates, the impact will be significant for emerging markets, including Indonesia. Foreign capital inflows could potentially return, the US dollar could weaken, and gold prices could likely rise.

This situation gives additional impetus to the JCI, which has already received support from domestic factors.

However, the risk of volatility remains. Global markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and economic uncertainty. Investors are advised to monitor the official FOMC release for a clearer picture of market direction.

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Leading Sectors and Growth Potential of the JCI

Several sectors are considered to have the potential to support the JCI's movement this week. Banking stocks are clearly the favourites thanks to government funding injections. Furthermore, the infrastructure sector is also showing strength as the government plans to accelerate development projects and provide additional subsidies for hotels and restaurants.

The non-primary consumer sector also benefited from government assistance programs. Social subsidies, extended food aid, and cash programs are believed to maintain purchasing power. This will impact sales of consumer goods and retail.

Meanwhile, gold and commodities could be defensive options. If the Fed lowers interest rates, gold prices are likely to rise, benefiting gold mining companies. With the combination of the financial, infrastructure, and commodity sectors, the JCI has the potential to continue its positive trend despite pressure in the healthcare and industrial sectors.

Conclusion

The JCI (IHSG) forecast following the Purbaya Securities and the Fed's FOMC meeting is optimistic. The placement of government funds in state-owned banks strengthens domestic liquidity, while the potential for a Fed rate cut provides an opportunity for foreign capital inflows. The banking, infrastructure, consumer, and commodity sectors are the main focus.

Investors can capitalize on this momentum while remaining mindful of exchange rate risks and global volatility. Portfolio diversification remains a key strategy for safer investments.

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FAQ

What is the Purbaya Effect?

This term refers to the government's policy of placing IDR 200 trillion in state-owned banks to strengthen liquidity.

How does the Fed's FOMC affect the JCI?

If the Fed lowers interest rates, foreign capital could flow into Indonesia and support the strengthening of the JCI.

Which sectors have the potential to rise?

The banking, infrastructure, non-primary consumer, and commodity sectors, such as gol,d are predicted to strengthen.

Will the JCI definitely rise this week?

There is no certainty, but a combination of domestic and global factors provides an opportunity for strengthening.

What is the best strategy for investors?

Diversify your portfolio, monitor economic news, and focus on leading sector stocks.