XRP Price Prediction for August 2026: Hold at $1 or Rebound?

The XRP/USDT trading chart on Bittime this week has been dominated by red candles that refuse to stop falling. 

The price briefly touched $1.0035 before finally settling around $1.0049, only a whisker away from the round number $1, which has long been considered the last line of defense. 

This movement is the main subject of the XRP price prediction for August 2026: will this psychological level hold, or will it break just like some previous support levels? 

For traders who have been monitoring XRP's price in August 2026 over the past few weeks, this situation is not a huge surprise, but it remains a critical point that will determine the future direction of this altcoin.

Key Takeaways

• XRP lost the $1.05 support that had held since June and is now trading in the $1.00–$1.03 range, approaching the psychological $1 level.
• All four daily moving averages are convincingly showing a downtrend, with RSI at 38.3 indicating that selling momentum still dominates, though it has not yet entered oversold territory.
• US spot XRP ETFs have recorded four consecutive sessions without any net outflows, a signal that institutional investors tend to hold their positions despite the decline in portfolio value due to price drops.

$1.05 Support Breaks, XRP Now Tests $1 Level

Since June 2026, XRP has been moving in a descending triangle pattern, a series of lower highs pressing against a flat support line until the price's trading range narrows. 

That line was at $1.05, and this level had survived several tests throughout June and July before finally breaking down at the beginning of August. 

Phemex noted that the decline has been gradual, without sharp liquidation candles, which typically means sellers are absorbing the remaining demand at that level rather than being forced out by sudden pressure. 

This kind of gradual decline actually makes the $1.05 level harder to reclaim on the first attempt.

The latest data as of August 11 from Coin-Turk reinforces that picture. XRP is quoted at $1.03 and is below all four of its main daily moving averages, a condition that rarely occurs unless selling pressure is indeed dominating. 

Real-time data on the Bittime platform at the time of writing is also in line: XRP/USDT is at $1.0049, down 3.33% in 24 hours, with the daily low at $1.0035, just a few points away from the $1 level itself.

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Key Support and Resistance Levels That Determine XRP's Direction

Once $1.05 was broken, XRP's support and resistance map virtually changed entirely. Here are the key levels currently used in XRP technical analysis:

• Critical support: $1.00–$1.03. This is the last defense zone before XRP completely loses its psychological footing.
• Next support if $1 breaks: $0.95, then $0.90. There is no significant technical floor between these two levels because the descending triangle pattern does not provide intermediate support points.
• Short-term resistance: $1.07–$1.09, in line with the 20-day EMA, which will be the first test if the price attempts to rebound.
• Strong resistance: $1.15 (Parabolic SAR flip point) to $1.18. Breaking this level would require a more decisive trend reversal than anything seen on the chart in recent weeks.
• Long-term moving average: $1.37, far above the current price, and an indication of how deep XRP's downtrend has already become.

The daily RSI is at 38.3, below its own signal line at 41.7. This confirms that momentum is still tilted toward sellers, but the RSI has not yet touched the oversold zone, which, according to Coin-Turk, means there is still room for further declines before a valid oversold signal emerges. 

A reclaim of $1.05 would only be considered legitimate with a daily close above that level, not merely a brief wick that fails to hold until the candle closes. Conversely, confirmation of a breakdown to $1 would require a daily close below $1.02–$1.03 with above-average volume.

Also Read: How to Buy XRP on Bittime: A Complete Guide for Beginners

ETF Data Anomaly: AUM Declines, but That Doesn't Mean Investors Are Fleeing

One of the numbers most often misinterpreted in recent XRP news is ETF data. The seven spot XRP ETFs operating in the United States hold about 992.4 million tokens, with cumulative net inflows reaching $1.51 billion since their launch. 

However, the combined AUM of these seven funds is now only about $1 billion, a figure that on paper looks like a large amount of money has fled.

According to Phemex, the explanation is actually simple: it is purely a mark-to-market effect. Most of that $1.51 billion came in when XRP prices were much higher than they are now, while the ETF share value follows the token price daily, not the price at which the funds were initially deposited. 

The number of tokens held by these funds has barely changed; only their dollar value has shrunk in line with XRP's price. 

Flow data supports this argument, with four consecutive sessions from July 31 to August 4 without a single session of net outflows, a pattern that more reflects investors staying put rather than panic selling.

Also Read: XRP Ledger (XRPL) Explained: Definition and How It Works

Conclusion

XRP's decision point is currently right at the $1 level. If the daily close manages to get back above $1.05, the summer trading range could still be maintained, with the 20-day EMA at $1.09 as the next test. 

Conversely, a daily close below $1.02–$1.03 with high volume would confirm the $1 target is truly reached, with $0.95 and $0.90 as the next levels with no technical support in between. 

ETF data, which remains free of outflows, signals institutional patience, but this pattern needs to be monitored session by session because it can change at any time. 

For now, XRP's technical bias leans neutral-bearish, and the level traders must watch is no longer above the price but below it.

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FAQ

Will XRP drop below $1 in August 2026? 

There is no official confirmation yet, as the condition is a daily close below $1.02–$1.03 with high volume. So far, XRP has only approached that level without convincingly breaking through it.

Why has XRP been falling lately? 

XRP lost the $1.05 support from the descending triangle pattern that had formed since June. The decline has been gradual without sharp liquidations, making that level harder to reclaim.

Are XRP ETFs experiencing outflows? 

No, there have been four consecutive sessions without net outflows from July 31 to August 4. The decline in AUM is more due to mark-to-market from the token price drop, not investors withdrawing their funds.

Which level is most important for XRP traders to watch now? 

Critical support is at $1.00–$1.03, while the nearest resistance is at $1.07–$1.09. These two levels will determine whether XRP rebounds or continues its downtrend.

What is XRP's target if the $1 support is truly broken? 

The next levels to watch are $0.95, followed by $0.90, because the descending triangle pattern does not provide intermediate support in that range.