Gold Price Prediction 2026 for Global and Local Markets

Bittime - 2026 looks set to be a new chapter for the precious metal market. After several years of economic turmoil and geopolitical uncertainty, global investors' attention is now returning to gold. Check out the 2026 gold price prediction here!

This yellow metal, known as a hedge asset, is expected to continue to strengthen until next year, and a number of large financial institutions even predict that its price could break through 5,000 US dollars per ounce.

In a recent report, major banks such asHSBC, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Societe Generale update their projections on gold price movements.

Everyone agrees that 2026 could be a golden year for precious metal holders. What exactly is driving this optimism, and how will it impact gold prices in the local market? Here's an analysis.

Global Trends: Gold Remains a Safe Option Amid Uncertainty

Gold has always been a sought-after asset during times of global economic uncertainty. According to HSBC, gold prices have the potential to reach 5,000 US dollars per ounce in 2026.

The main factors driving this trend are rising geopolitical tensions, US monetary policy, and the weakening US dollar.

The bank also predicts price increases will continue into the first half of 2026 due to high public debt and global policy uncertainty. Unlike previous price spikes, the gold market is expected to be more stable this time around.

This is because many institutional investors see gold not just as a speculative tool, but as long-term diversified assets.

Apart from HSBC,Bank of America also increased the gold price projection to 5,000 dollars per ounce at the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs assess the price of gold could reach4,900 dollars per ounce in December of the same year.

Similar projections also come fromUBS, who predicts a fall in real interest rates will push gold prices up 4,700 dollars per ounce.

Read also: Is Bitcoin a Better Investment Than Gold?

Factors Driving Gold Price Increases in 2026

There are several reasons why analysts believe that gold prices will continue to strengthen into next year:

1. The Fed's Policy and Interest Rate Cuts
   Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have led many investors to turn to gold. When interest rates fall, the appeal of low-yielding assets like gold increases because their opportunity cost decreases.

2. Geopolitical Tensions
   Conflicts in several regions of the world, including the Middle East and Eastern Europe, have prompted global investors to seek safe haven assets. Gold has become a primary choice due to its stable value.

3. Increasing Demand from Central Banks
   Many global central banks are increasing their gold reserves in an effort to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. This move has also strengthened global demand.

4. US Dollar Weakness
   When the US dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise because the precious metal is traded in that currency.

5. Metal Crisis and Tight Supply
   Some analysts also highlighted pressure on the precious metals supply chain, particularly due to rising industrial demand and production constraints.

Global and Domestic Gold Prices: Latest Data and Projections

In mid-October 2025, the world gold price broke through 4,378 US dollars per ounce, an all-time high. In one year, the price of gold has risen more than60%, and this trend has the potential to continue into next year.

Meanwhile, in the domestic market, gold bullion prices also surged significantly. According to data from the Bareksa Emas feature (October 17, 2025), the price of Antam gold reached aroundRp. 2.48 million per gram, while at Pegadaian and Indogold it ranges betweenRp2.33 million to Rp2.42 million per gram.

If the 2026 global gold price prediction is correct, reaching 5,000 US dollars per ounce, then the price of gold in the local market could reach the rangeRp. 2.8 million per gram assuming the exchange rate remains at around Rp. 16,600 per US dollar.

Read also: Gold Price Prediction for September 2025: Buying Momentum or Selling Time?

Domestic Gold Price Prediction Simulation for 2026

This simulation shows significant potential for gold investors next year. However, excessively rapid price increases could also trigger a correction at any time, particularly if the global economic situation improves or the Fed delays interest rate cuts.

Risks to Watch Out For

Despite the bright outlook, gold prices still carry risks. Several factors that could restrain price increases include:

• Strengthening of the US dollar due to large cash flows towards liquid assets such as cash.

• US economic performance, stronger than expected, could dampen interest in gold.

• Profit taking action after the price touches a certain psychological level, such as 4,500 or 5,000 dollars per ounce.

• Global geopolitical stabilization which reduces the demand for safe assets.

Therefore, for those of you looking to invest in gold, it's important to understand that a positive trend isn't without risk. A gradual and disciplined approach remains the best strategy.

Read also: Gold Prices Hit New All-Time High, Bitcoin Prices Plummet!

What Does This Mean for Investors in Indonesia?

For local investors, 2026 could be a crucial year to strengthen their gold portfolio. The upward trend in prices suggests potential long-term gains, especially for those who start investing early.

You may consider investing incrementally (dollar cost averaging)through digital gold platforms such as Bareksa, Indogold, or Pegadaian Digital.

This way, you can balance the risks of price fluctuations while still taking advantage of the upward trend.

If the projections of global financial institutions are correct, then gold has the potential to become the most powerful hedge asset in 2026.

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FAQ

How much is 1 gram of gold now?

As of October 20, 2025, the price1 gram of pure gold bullion (24 carat) ranges between Rp2,320,000 to Rp3,350,000. This price does not include tax and is subject to change.

What is 70% gold called?

Gold with a content above 70% is called old gold. Gold with a content below 70% (equivalent to 16 karats or lower) is called young gold.

What is the difference between 23 and 24 karat gold?

The main difference is impurity.

• 24 carat gold is pure gold (99,9%), the color is brighter, but less intense.

• 23 carat goldhas a level of around95,8%and mixed with other metals to make it stronger, more durable, but the color is a little duller.

What is gold called?

Terms commonly used for gold include: karat (measure of purity, 24 carat is pure), bullion (investment bars or coins), fineness (purity), troy ounce (unit of weight), buyback (resale), and dinar (gold coins).

How much is 1 gram of 22 carat gold?

Price 1 gram of 22 carat gold varies greatly depending on the type (jewelry or bullion) and the seller, but generally ranges between Rp1.74 million to more than Rp2.2 million 22-karat gold in the form of jewelry that tends to be cheaper than 24-karat gold bullion.