NVDA September Outlook: Will Nvidia Stock Rally Again or Correct?

Entering September 2026, investor attention is once again turning to Nvidia (NVDA) after the company reported exceptionally strong quarterly performance.

Nvidia posted revenue of $96.2 billion in fiscal Q2 2027, up 106% year over year, while earnings per share reached $2.46. Data Center revenue surged 117% to $89 billion.

The market reaction was also positive. Nvidia stock closed at around $227.98 on August 28 after jumping 8.7% following the earnings report, approaching its record high of $235.74.

However, as September begins, investors face a different question: can the NVDA rally continue, or will the stock experience a correction after its sharp rise?

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia's fundamentals remain strong, with triple-digit revenue growth and next-quarter guidance reaching $108 billion.
• Historically, September has not been a strong month for NVDA; Nvidia stock has declined by an average of 0.8% during 2016–2025.
• For Nvidia September 2026, interest rates, the sustainability of AI spending, and NVDA's ability to maintain momentum above the $225 area will be important factors.

Nvidia Fundamentals Remain the Main Support

From a business perspective, there are still strong reasons to maintain a bullish view on Nvidia.

In fiscal Q2 2027, which ended July 26, Nvidia revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 18% from the previous quarter and 106% from the previous year. GAAP net income reached $59.7 billion, while gross margin stood at 75%.

More importantly for NVDA stock September, management provided guidance for the third quarter. Nvidia expects revenue of approximately $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, although this projection does not include Data Center computing revenue from China.

The figure shows that demand for AI infrastructure remains very strong. Nvidia also said its Vera Rubin platform has entered full production, with several cloud partners beginning to run the systems.

Therefore, if investors focus solely on fundamentals, the case for Nvidia stock to rise remains strong.

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September Has a Less Supportive Seasonal Pattern

The issue is historical performance.

During 2016–2025, the S&P 500 recorded an average decline of 1.3% in September. Nvidia showed a similar pattern, with an average decline of around 0.8% during the same period.

This does not mean NVDA will necessarily decline in September. Historical samples cannot accurately predict one month's price movement.

However, for the NVDA September outlook, this pattern represents an additional risk factor, particularly because the stock is entering a new month after a major post-earnings rally.

When investor expectations are already high, strong performance alone is not enough. Nvidia must continue delivering growth that exceeds market expectations to keep its valuation supported.

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NVDA Rally Can Continue If AI Spending Holds Up

One of the main reasons to remain bullish on Nvidia stock September is the scale of AI infrastructure spending.

Nvidia estimates that the five largest hyperscalers will allocate around $1.3 trillion in capital expenditures in 2027. If these investments continue to increase, demand for Nvidia GPUs and AI systems could remain high.

The company also indicated that fiscal 2028 growth could reach around 70%. This outlook reinforces the view that the AI cycle may not be nearing its end.

The problem is that investors are beginning to question how long hyperscalers can sustain this level of spending. If AI monetization does not develop as expected, technology companies could reduce infrastructure investments.

This is one of the biggest risks for Nvidia stock prediction in the medium term.

Read Also: Nvidia Revenue Hits $96.2 Billion, Is This the Start of a New NVDA Rally?

Interest Rate Risks Could Pressure Nvidia Stock

Macro factors are also a key consideration for Nvidia September 2026.

Technology stocks with high growth valuations are typically sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations. 

Following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, market probabilities for an interest rate hike in September increased and Treasury yields also moved higher. These conditions pressured technology stocks at the end of August.

If inflation remains high and the Fed maintains a tighter policy, investors could reduce their exposure to growth stocks.

Conversely, if economic data shows that inflation is under control and interest rate pressure eases, NVDA could regain support from investors seeking growth.

Key NVDA Price Levels to Watch

From a technical perspective, the $225 area is one of the key levels for NVDA stock September.

Nvidia stock closed at $227.98 on August 28 after breaking above the $225.93 area. Technical analysis provided by TradingKey identifies this level as important support within the current trend.

If NVDA holds above $225 and breaks back above its previous record high of around $235.74, bullish momentum could continue. The next area to watch is around $240.

Conversely, if the price falls below $225, profit-taking pressure could increase. The $211 area would then become a level worth watching, while a deeper decline could bring the price toward around $193.

In other words, a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support will provide a clearer signal for the direction of the next NVDA rally.

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So, Will Nvidia Stock Rally or Correct?

For the NVDA September outlook, the most reasonable scenario at this point is bullish with a risk of consolidation.

Nvidia's fundamentals have not shown clear signs of weakening. Revenue has more than doubled year over year, Data Center continues to expand, and next-quarter guidance remains very strong.

However, the stock is entering September after a major rally and faces a historically less favorable seasonal pattern. Combined with interest rate risks and concerns over the sustainability of AI spending, a short-term correction remains possible.

Therefore, a move above $235.74 would be an important signal for continued momentum, while a decline below $225 could open the door to a deeper consolidation.

Investors should also avoid evaluating Nvidia solely based on a single month's performance. The company's performance over the past several years shows that its core story remains centered on AI computing growth and Nvidia's ability to maintain its competitive position.

Read Also:NVIDIA Stock vs NVDAX: Advantages of Tokenized Stock

Conclusion

Nvidia September 2026 could face volatility following its post-earnings rally. Fundamentals remain bullish, but seasonal factors, interest rates, and valuation mean a short-term correction remains possible. 

As long as NVDA holds above the $225 area, the bullish structure remains relatively intact. Continue monitoring NVDA stock price movements to assess changes.

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FAQ

What is the NVDA September outlook?

The NVDA September outlook is an analysis of Nvidia stock's prospects during September 2026, taking into account fundamentals, technical factors, market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions.

Will Nvidia stock rise in September 2026?

The possibility of an increase remains open because Nvidia's fundamentals are strong. However, the rally could face consolidation because September has historically been a relatively weak month for NVDA.

What are the key Nvidia stock levels for September?

The $225 area is an important support level, while $235.74 is the record high that needs to be broken to strengthen bullish momentum. If a breakout occurs, the area around $240 would be the next target.

What are the biggest risks for Nvidia in September?

Key risks include higher interest rates, a technology market correction, slower AI spending by hyperscalers, valuation pressure, and excessively high investor expectations.

Does Nvidia still have long-term prospects?

The long-term outlook remains supported by AI growth and demand for computing. Nvidia itself projects fiscal Q3 2027 revenue of around $108 billion, indicating that demand remains strong.