Why Hasn't Altseason Arrived? Altcoin vs Bitcoin Divergence That Can't Be Ignored

Bittime - Altcoin season (altseason) has yet to appear, despite many traders anticipating it. Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, with a share of around 56-60%. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index actually fell by more than 10% in May.

However, there's something odd: the OTHERS/BTC ratio rose 14.5% in May. This indicates a capital rotation into altcoins. But why hasn't altseason arrived yet? Let's examine the altcoin divergence that shouldn't be ignored.

Key Takeaway

• OTHERS/BTC ratio rose 14.5% in May– Shows capital rotation to altcoins, but is limited to only a few assets.
• Altcoin Season Index down 10%– This means that the majority of altcoins still underperform Bitcoin.
• Ethereum weakness becomes a barrier– ETH TVL drops to $40 billion, stablecoin supply $6 billion below peak.

Register at Bittimenow and start trading crypto with a fast, safe, and easy process in the app. 

Altcoin vs Bitcoin Divergence: What's Happening?

The altcoin market is exhibiting a strange trend. On the one hand, Bitcoin remains outperforming most other major assets. BTC rose more than 6% in Q2 2026, while most top-cap assets remained in the red for the quarter.

Bitcoin dominance remains stable around 60%, up 1.85% over the same period. This shows that BTC remains king.

However, the OTHERS/BTC ratio does not show the same picture.

Source: TradingView (OTHERS/BTC)

This ratio rose by over 6% in Q2 and closed with a strong 14.5% increase in May. This indicates that capital rotation out of Bitcoin may have begun.

But don't be fooled. The rise in the OTHERS/BTC ratio doesn't necessarily signal an altseason. What's happening is a highly selective rotation, with only a handful of outperforming altcoins attracting capital, not the entire market.

Read also:The Most Accurate and Best Crypto Trading Indicator Combination 2026

Altcoin Season Index: Still Lethargic

BlockchainCenter's Altcoin Season Index closed May down more than 10%. This indicates that the broader altcoin market is still struggling to gain momentum against Bitcoin.

In other words, while some pockets of the market appear to be shifting toward altcoins, participation remains narrow, not broad. Only a few altcoins are actually gaining ground.

Crypto season 2026 has not started yet.

The true altcoin season (where 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin) has yet to happen.

Read also:Altcoin Season 2026: Has It Already Started or Is It Too Early?

Ethereum Weakness Becomes a Major Obstacle

Why hasn't an altseason arrived yet? The answer lies in Ethereum.

ETH is currently still trading nearly 60% below its previous cycle peak.

Until ETH and its DeFi ecosystem attract stronger inflows, the broader altcoin rally will struggle to gain traction.

On-chain data supports this view. According to DeFiLlama, Ethereum's TVL has fallen back to around $40 billion, a level last seen in Q1 2024.

Meanwhile, the stablecoin supply on the Ethereum network is still around $6 billion below its peak of $166 billion.

Together, these metrics suggest that capital has not returned to Ethereum on the scale needed to support a broader rotation into the altcoin market.

This is a critical altcoin divergence: the OTHERS/BTC ratio is rising, but Ethereum (the backbone of the altcoin ecosystem) is still sluggish.

Read also:Altcoin Season 2026 Opportunities & Challenges: Fund Flow Analysis & BTC Dominance

What to Expect in June 2026?

Markets are increasingly looking to June as a potential catalyst for a broader altcoin rally.

The reason is simple: Hyperliquid (HYPE) continues to trend upwards, but that strength has not translated into broader rotation.

Capital remains concentrated in a handful of outperformers.

However, that could begin to change in June. With expectations of improved regulatory clarity, traders are betting capital will shift further down the risk curve. The primary focus remains on Ethereum.

If ETH and its DeFi ecosystem begin attracting significant inflows, a broader altcoin rally could begin. Otherwise, the current divergence will continue.

Conclusion

Altseason hasn't yet emerged due to significant divergence between altcoins and Bitcoin. The OTHERS/BTC ratio rose 14.5% in May, indicating capital rotation, but it was limited to a handful of outperforming altcoins.

The Altcoin Season index actually fell by 10%.

Bitcoin dominance remains at 56-60%, while Ethereum is weak with TVL dropping to $40 billion.

A true altcoin rally requires Ethereum and its DeFi ecosystem to recover first.

The 2026 crypto season may only begin if regulatory clarity in June brings capital back into Ethereum. Until then, the current divergence should not be ignored.

Bitcoin is now available and ready for trading on Bittime via the  BTC/IDR pair; in addition, there are other assets on the Bitcoin BRC20 network, such as SATS and ORDI.

Bittime is a licensed and regulated Digital Financial Asset Trader (PAKD) supervised by Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) — where you can buy Bitcoin in Indonesia and hundreds of other crypto assets starting from just Rp10,000. The registration process is fast, secure, and you can get started today.

Track USDT to IDR conversions and monitor your favorite crypto assets in real time. Everything is available in one crypto investment app that you can download for free on the Play Store

Ready to start? Register now on Bittime and execute your investment strategy with a platform trusted by millions of users in Indonesia.

FAQ

Why hasn't altseason appeared yet?

As capital rotation is limited to a handful of outperforming altcoins, Ethereum remains weak with its TVL dropping to $40 billion.

What is altcoin divergence?

The difference between indicators showing a rotation to altcoins (the OTHERS/BTC ratio is rising) and the fact that the majority of altcoins are still underperforming Bitcoin.

What does the OTHERS/BTC ratio say?

This ratio rose 14.5% in May, indicating a capital rotation away from Bitcoin, but only into a select few altcoins.

Why is Ethereum important for altseason?

Ethereum is the backbone of the DeFi and altcoin ecosystems. Without significant inflows into ETH, a broad altcoin rally is unlikely.

What is Bitcoin's current dominance?

Around 56-60%. This shows that Bitcoin still dominates the market.