When Is the Best Day to Buy Bitcoin? CoinGecko Study Reveals the Days with the Highest Returns

New Year's. Columbus Day. Christmas. These US holidays are not only a time to relax, but also a prime time to buy Bitcoin.

CoinGecko's 13-year study (May 2013 – May 2026) revealed a surprising fact:buy Bitcoin on US holidays yielded an average return of +0.77% the following day, four times higher than on non-holiday days which were only +0.19%.

So what was the worst day? Thursday was the only day of the week with a negative return, at -0.09%.

Key Points

• US holidays are the best– The return on the day after the holiday reached +0.77% with a win rate of 58.4%. The non-holiday return was only +0.19%.

• New Year is the most powerful day– Return +2.01% with a win rate of 84.6% (Bitcoin rose in 11 of 13 years).

• The worst Thursday– The only day with a negative return (-0.09%). Monday and Wednesday were the best weekdays (+0.38%).

Register at Bittime now and start trading crypto with a fast, safe, and easy process in the app. 

Best Days to Buy Bitcoin: US Holidays

CoinGecko's study found that the highest returns occurred on US federal holidays. Of the 10 holidays analyzed, New Year's Day (January 1st) was the strongest, with a return the day after reaching +2.01% and a win rate of 84.6%. This means Bitcoin rose in 11 of the 13 years observed.

Source: Coingecko

Columbus Day matched an 84.6% win rate with a return of +1.70%.

Christmas gave a return of +1.46% even though the win rate was lower (53.8%).

Labor Day also recorded a positive return of +1.22% with a win rate of 69.2%.

Why is New Year's so strong? The study attributes it to the well-known January momentum effect in traditional markets. Fresh capital allocation at the start of the year boosts riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Additionally, the transition from selling for tax purposes in December to repositioning in January reinforces this dynamic.

Read also:How to Trade Crypto for Beginners from Zero to Understanding

Worst Day: Thursday and Some Exceptions

Source: Coingecko

The daily bitcoin DCA strategy needs to note that Thursday was the only day with a negative return, namely -0.09% with a win rate of 51.2%.

Monday and Wednesday were the best working days with a return of +0.38% and a win rate of around 54%.

Holidays aren't all positive. MLK Day (Martin Luther King Jr. Day) recorded a return of -0.84% ​​with a win rate of just 46.2%.

This figure is driven by one major outlier: January 15, 2018, when Bitcoin crashed -18.65% at the start of a bear market.

US Independence Day (July 4th) also recorded a negative return of -0.26% with a win rate of 46.2%.

Veterans Day does have an average return of +1.75%, but its win rate is only 46.2%, meaning that three large positive outliers (November 2014, 2015, and 2024) are driving up the average, not a consistent trend.

Read also:How to Save Crypto on a Minimum Wage: Starting from IDR 10,000 with a DCA Strategy

Weekends vs. Weekdays: The Difference Is Thin

Unlike the stock market, which closes on weekends, Bitcoin never closes. The result? The difference in returns between weekends and weekdays is minuscule, just 0.01 percentage points.

The average return after a working day (Monday-Friday) is +0.21% with a win rate of 52.5%.

Meanwhile, the weekend (Saturday-Sunday) recorded +0.22% with a win rate of 53.7%.

Statistically, this is not significant.

Saturday and Sunday behave similarly to Tuesday or Friday, no better, no worse.

Read also:How to Buy Bitcoin (BTC)

For Long-Term Investments: Days Don't Matter

This CoinGecko study of the highest returns also looked at a one-year holding period.

The results were surprising: all days of the week clustered in a narrow range between +142.15% to +144.56% average annual returns.

The difference is only 2.4 percentage points, negligible compared to Bitcoin's annual volatility. For long-term investors, the purchase date has no significant impact on the next year's results.

The holiday effect is still somewhat visible: buying on a US holiday and holding for one year yielded a return of +157.12% versus +142.96% for a non-holiday.

However, the study cautions that these results reflect more on whether the holiday falls in a bullish or bearish year, rather than the effect of the holiday itself.

The actual holiday signal only lasts for a short time.

Practical Application for Traders

If an investor since 2013 had concentrated their Bitcoin purchases only on US federal holidays (about 11 times per year), they would have captured an average return of +0.77% per purchase compared to +0.19% for purchases on weekdays.

Of the 149 purchases, this represents a higher quality short-term entry.

But in practice, most investors buy more often than 11 times a year.

A more applicable daily bitcoin DCA strategy is: if your purchase plan happens to coincide with a US holiday, historical data shows it's not a bad day to execute.

Conclusion

The best days to buy Bitcoin are US federal holidays, particularly New Year's Day (+2.01% return the day after) and Columbus Day (+1.70%). Thursday is the worst (-0.09%).

This CoinGecko study of the highest returns confirms that for short-term traders, purchase timing does matter, but only within a specific day, not weekends vs. weekdays.

For long-term investors (1 year), the purchase day has almost no effect at all.

The smartest daily bitcoin DCA strategy?

If you want to maximize your entry a bit, buy on a US holiday.

But if you HODL for years, buy anytime, because the end result will be very similar.

How to Buy Crypto on Bittime?

Want to trade sell buy Bitcoins and crypto investment easily? Bittime is here to help! As an Indonesian crypto exchange officially registered with OJK, Bittime ensures every transaction is safe and fast.

Start with registration and identity verification, then make a minimum deposit of IDR 10,000. After that, you can immediately buy your favorite digital assets!

Check the exchange rate BTC to IDR, ETH to IDR, SOL to IDR and other crypto assets to find out today's crypto market trends in real-time on Bittime.

Also, visit the Bittime Blog for interesting updates and educational information about the crypto world. Find reliable articles about Web3, blockchain technology, and digital asset investment tips designed to enrich your crypto knowledge.

FAQ

What is the best day to buy Bitcoin?

US federal holidays, especially New Year's (+2.01% return the day after) and Columbus Day (+1.70%).

Is Thursday really a bad day to buy Bitcoin?

Yes. A 13-year study shows that Thursday is the only day with a negative return (-0.09%) the following day.

Is it better to buy Bitcoin on the weekend?

No. The difference in returns between weekends and weekdays is only 0.01%, which is not statistically significant.

Does a daily Bitcoin DCA strategy need to pay attention to the day?

For the short term, yes. For a one-year holding, the day of the week doesn't matter; all days yield annual returns between +142% and +145%.

Do holidays always provide positive returns?

No. MLK Day (-0.84%) and Independence Day (-0.26%) actually gave negative returns.