Mt. Bitcoin Balance Gox Drops to $3 Billion, How Does It Affect BTC?
2024-08-05
Bittime - Recently, a $3.1 billion Bitcoin (BTC) transfer from Mt. Gox to BitGo has driven down the defunct exchange's balance, indicating that supply pressure from Mt. Gox could end soon. Based on data from Arkham, the transfer made on July 30 made the estate trustee balance of Mt. Gox to $3.06 billion.
Decrease in Balance and Its Impact
The previous night, the addresses of Mt. Gox moved 33.96K BTC (worth $2.25 billion) to an address believed to be BitGo's. After this transfer, Mt. Gox now holds 46.16K BTC (worth $3.06 billion), including the new address Mt. Gox.
This significant reduction in estate trustee holdings means that supply pressure from Mt. Gox is almost over. Interestingly, the latest distribution from the defunct exchange did not put as much pressure on the market as previously thought.
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According to data from Glassnode, there was no significant selling effect among major exchanges such as Kraken and Bitstamp, which estate trustees use for payments. In fact, the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metric on Kraken increased marginally after the distribution, indicating no selling pressure after the exchange received payment.
CVD and Selling Pressure
CVD tracks net buying or selling volume on an exchange, with positive values indicating more buying volume on the order side of the market. Glassnode discovered a similar scenario on Bitstamp. Therefore, these payments did not put as much pressure on the market as sales by the German government. In short, the remaining $3 billion of BTC can be moved without affecting the market.
However, the main selling pressure currently comes from the US government. Currently, the US government holds about $13 billion of BTC after moving $2 billion of BTC last week that sent markets reeling.
Since June, fear of selling by the German and US governments has given the bears more leverage in the market. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, this selling pressure has strengthened the bears throughout the summer, as shown by Net Taker Volume.
Net Taker Volume and Market Conditions
Negative Net Taker Volume indicates that the market has been dominated by selling, because the buying volume is smaller than the buying side. At the time of writing, BTC has reached $63.0k and is threatening to weaken further ahead of the US jobs report for July, which will be released on August 2.
It remains to be seen if this jobs report will ease the accelerated selling despite the dovish FOMC meeting.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin balance drop Mt. Gox to $3 billion signals a possible end to the supply squeeze from this defunct exchange. The latest distribution does not put significant pressure on the market, in contrast to previous fears. However, selling pressure from the US government remains a major concern for the Bitcoin market today. BTC's future will be heavily influenced by global economic developments, including the upcoming US jobs report.
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