Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Reached a Peak? Following are the opinions of analysts

Bittime - Crypto analysts are of the opinion that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has already peaked. Is this opinion valid? Check out the analysis in the following article.

Bitcoin Price Drop

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a decline of 2.25% in the last 24 hours and is currently 16% below its all-time high of $73,835 reached on March 14. Over the last 30 days, BTC price fell 8.75% and 5.5% in the last three months. The downward trend in BTC prices in June has left market analysts wondering whether the peak of the cycle has been reached for the cryptocurrency.

Analysis from Market Analysts

Some analysts believe that the Bitcoin bull market has reached its peak. The following are some of the reasons underlying this view:

1. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Inflation Rate Nears Critical Threshold

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, stated that several onchain metrics showed Bitcoin's failure to print a new high after two retests was a "sign of weakness." In his latest newsletter, Edwards explains that Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) inflation rate has increased steadily over the past two years.

According to Glassnode, the LTH market inflation rate measures the annual rate of accumulation or distribution above daily issuance to miners. Higher values ​​indicate that LTH is adding selling pressure as their Bitcoin holdings are reduced. At the peak of a bull market, market inflation peaks above nominal inflation - the 2.0 threshold - "which usually signals a high probability that the top of the cycle has been reached," Edwards said. "At 1.9 today, we are too close to that level for my comfort."

2. Increase in Bitcoin Dormancy Flow Over the Last 3 Months

Another metric that is useful in determining market cycles and assessing whether Bitcoin is bullish or bearish is Dormancy Flow. This is an onchain metric used to measure the number of coins spent relative to the overall trend.

Additional data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin's Dormancy Flow z-score has increased sharply over the past 90 days. Edwards observed that this metric peaked significantly in April, indicating that the average age of coins spent is much higher in 2024. "The peak in this metric (z-score) typically sees a cycle peak just three months later," explained the analyst.

"Well, it is now three months later. Prices have only fallen, and the Dormancy Z Score peak remains with a very similar structure to the 2017 and 2021 peaks."

At its current value, the Dormancy Flow Z-Score means that Bitcoin is overvalued relative to the number of coins in transactions without being supported by trading volume. This suggests that Bitcoin price may have reached a cycle peak, which could also be bearish for the broader crypto market.

3. A Spike in Volume Spent Could Signal a Bitcoin Top

Lastly, the growing pool and spike in Volume Spent help point to what Edwards calls an "evolving risk area." Historically, when the volume spent 7-10 years of Bitcoin grows suddenly, this can signal a cycle peak.

It should be noted, the growing volume spent in 2024 indicates that this cycle is growing rapidly. "This graph will blow your mind," Edwards said in a post on X on July 2.

"This entire chart history disappeared as a huge amount of Bitcoin moved onchain, 10X more than the previous peak."

Edwards also noted that more than $9 billion in Bitcoin had been moved by addresses older than ten years. He attributed this distribution to a recent move by defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, as it prepares to pay its creditors at the end of July.

Swan, a Bitcoin financial services company, shared similar sentiments, saying that the market is concerned about the impact of the 142,000 Bitcoins (~$9 billion at current value) that creditor Mt. Gox after ten years.

Although “many creditors are long-term holders with payment options, institutional ownership, and tax considerations suggest gradual rather than sudden selling pressure, even if all the coins hit the market at once,” Swan explained.

In a follow-up post on X, the company added that continued selling by governments adds to supply-side pressure for Bitcoin.

Conclusion

In the face of significant price declines and various onchain indicators showing increasing selling pressure, some analysts believe that Bitcoin may have reached its cycle peak. However, it is important to remember that the crypto market is highly volatile and price movements can change quickly. Investors are advised to continue monitoring key metrics and the latest market news before making any investment decisions.

How to Buy Crypto in Bittime

You can buy and sell crypto assets in an easy and safe way via over. Bittime is one of the best crypto applications in Indonesia which is officially registered with Bappebti. 

To be able to buy crypto assets at over, make sure you have registered and completed identity verification. Apart from that, also make sure that you have sufficient balance by depositing some funds into your wallet. For your information, the minimum purchase of assets on Bittime is IDR 10,000. After that, you can purchase crypto assets in the application. Study Complete Guide How to Buy Crypto on Bittime. 

Monitor graphic movement Bitcoin (BTC) price, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SUN) and other cryptos to find out today's crypto market trends in real-time on Bittime.