Bitcoin to $125,000, Is the Bearish Phase About to End?

Over the last ten days, Bitcoin's price jumped 28 percent from its lowest point — a sharp enough rise to get Bernstein, one of the most influential Wall Street research firms in the digital asset industry, talking. 

In its latest report seen by Cointelegraph, the AllianceBernstein-owned research firm projects that BTC will touch $125,000 again by the end of 2026, a signal that the bearish phase that has hit the market since the October 2025 peak is nearing its end.

Bernstein's 2026 Bitcoin prediction is not a random guess. The numbers are built on Bitcoin's four-year cycle framework, complete with gradual targets up to 2033 and mathematical calculations linking BTC price to miners' production costs. 

This article dissects the entire contents of the report, from the projection numbers, the reasons behind them, to the impact on Strategy — the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

Key Takeaways

• Bernstein projects Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and a cycle peak around $300,000 in 2029 (base scenario).
• The 28% rebound in 10 days and a shallower drawdown than previous cycles are the main reasons Bernstein believes the bearish phase will end soon.
• Strategy now holds 840,447 BTC, but Bernstein cut its MSTR stock price target from $450 to $350 due to accelerated equity dilution.

Bernstein Projects Bitcoin to Break Through $125,000 by the End of 2026

According to a report published Wednesday and seen by Cointelegraph, Bernstein divides its projections into two scenarios. The base scenario places Bitcoin's price target at $125,000 by the end of 2026, rising to $150,000 by mid-2027, then reaching a cycle peak of around $300,000 in 2029. 

The bull case scenario is more aggressive: a BTC target of $200,000 by mid-2027 and a peak of $500,000 in the same year. In both scenarios, Bernstein maintains its long-term target of $1 million by 2033.

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This projection relies on Bitcoin's four-year cycle model linked to the halving — the event that reduces the block reward for miners roughly every four years. 

Bernstein divides each cycle into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown, and accumulation, then estimates price levels in each phase by comparing Bitcoin's market price against the estimated production costs of the least efficient miners.

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Reasons for Bernstein's Optimism: Sharp Rebound and Institutional Support

The basis of Bernstein's confidence is actually simple, but grounded in historical data. Bitcoin rose 28 percent in the last 10 days after previously plunging around 50 percent from its October 2025 peak — a rebound that the firm believes could be a bullish BTC signal marking the end of the current bearish cycle.

What makes this cycle different, according to Bernstein, is the composition of market participants. Institutional investors and corporate buyers are said to play a much larger role than in previous cycles, providing stronger downside support. 

As a result, this decline is "only" about 50 percent — much shallower than the 75 to 90 percent drawdowns common in past cycles. For investors, this means the pattern and depth of Bitcoin corrections may not exactly repeat as before, as long as large and persistent buyers remain in the market.

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Bernstein also incorporates a quantitative formula into its projections through the concept of the price-to-marginal cost multiple — the ratio of Bitcoin's price to the estimated marginal production costs of miners. 

The firm estimates that this ratio will shrink from 1.4x at the 2025 peak (around $125,000), to about 1.25x at the projected 2029 peak (around $300,000), then fall further to about 1.2x when it hits $1 million in 2033. 

This means that these increasingly high Bitcoin price targets are assumed to go hand-in-hand with a valuation multiple that is actually tightening — not getting wilder as is the general perception of bull run cycles.

Of course, this multiple compression assumption is still just a model. If demand grows drastically, regulations change, or the mining cost structure shifts, the accuracy of this projection could deviate significantly from reality.

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Strategy and MSTR: The Big Bet Behind the Bullish Bitcoin Prediction

Bernstein's bullish Bitcoin prediction also directly impacts Strategy, the world's largest corporate BTC holder. According to the report, Strategy now holds 840,447 BTC, equivalent to about 4 percent of the maximum supply of 21 million coins. 

Bernstein maintains an "Outperform" rating for Strategy's stock, but cuts its price target from $450 to $350 — a consequence of accelerated equity dilution and Bernstein's revised view on the Bitcoin cycle.

Bernstein notes that if Bitcoin's price continues to strengthen and Strategy's Stream preferred stock (STRC) recovers to around $100 (STRC was trading at $97.15), the company could potentially resume aggressively buying BTC on a large scale. However, this report isn't just about opportunities. 

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Bernstein also cites analysis from Regime Intelligence stating that the biggest threat to Strategy's Bitcoin treasury is not a market crash, but the risk of losing access to capital markets for an extended period — a condition that could make it difficult for the company to fund its roughly $1.76 billion annual obligations without having to sell BTC.

Interestingly, Bernstein's Bitcoin price targets have indeed been revised frequently. Since October 2024, the firm had set a target of $200,000 for 2025, then gradually lowered it to $150,000 in early 2026 along with the market's sharp correction, as reported by TipRanks and crypto.news. 

A similar pattern is seen in this latest revision: short-term figures are cut, but the long-term cycle thesis remains intact. This doesn't mean Bernstein's predictions aren't worth paying attention to, but it serves as a reminder that such numbers are dynamic and can change with market conditions.

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Conclusion

In short, Bernstein views the 28% rebound from the low and the shallower drawdown than previous cycles as signals that Bitcoin's bearish phase is nearing its end, with Bitcoin price targets of $125,000 at the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and a cycle peak of up to $300,000-$500,000 in 2029. 

This projection also affects Strategy's fate, which could potentially resume aggressive BTC purchases if prices continue to rise, even though the company also faces long-term funding risks. However, given Bernstein's history of frequently revising its numbers, this projection should be viewed as an analytical framework based on Bitcoin's historical cycle data — not a certainty for future BTC price direction.

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FAQ

What is Bernstein's Bitcoin price prediction for 2026? 

Bernstein projects Bitcoin's price to hit $125,000 by the end of 2026 in its base scenario. This target is part of the four-year cycle framework used by the research firm.

What is Bernstein's Bitcoin price target for 2029? 

In the base scenario, Bernstein projects Bitcoin's cycle peak to be around $300,000 in 2029. The bull case scenario places the target higher, up to $500,000.

What is the main reason Bernstein is optimistic about Bitcoin's rebound? 

Bitcoin rose 28 percent in 10 days after plunging 50 percent from the October 2025 peak — a shallower drawdown than previous cycles. Bernstein attributes this to the increasing role of institutional and corporate investors in the market.

Will Strategy buy more Bitcoin? 

According to Bernstein, Strategy could potentially resume aggressively buying BTC if Bitcoin's price continues to strengthen and STRC preferred stock recovers to around $100. However, long-term funding access remains a risk factor for this plan.

What is Bitcoin's price today ahead of Bernstein's report release? 

Ahead of this report being published in late August 2026, Bitcoin's price is still trading below $80,000. This is precisely the condition that makes the 28% rebound over the last 10 days considered a significant signal by Bernstein.

Can Bernstein's Bitcoin price projection be used as an investment benchmark? 

This projection is the result of research and analysis, not a guarantee of future BTC price movements. Bernstein itself has revised its targets several times throughout 2025-2026 in response to changing market conditions.